The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
98%Missouri TigersStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
MIZ by 39.9market MIZ by 44.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
66.5 pointsmarket 57.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Missouri Tigers at 98% to win, with the market at MIZ by 44.5.
MIZ has the advantage in passing: MIZ passing ranks #98, MASS defends it at #128; the other way MASS #129 into MIZ's #19.
MIZ has the advantage in rushing: MIZ rushing ranks #18, MASS defends it at #125; the other way MASS #132 into MIZ's #33.
Rest: MASS has 7 more days since its last game (MIZ 7d, MASS 14d).
Form: MIZ has the better last five games by 31.6 points a game (MIZ -0.4, MASS -32.0).
Home field is with MIZ, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it MIZ by 39.9 against a market MIZ by 44.5: 4.6 points of daylight in MASS's favour. The model's total is 66.5 against a line of 57.5: 9.0 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model MIZ by 39.9 · market MIZ by 44.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
MIZ
Clear advantage
MIZ passing ranks #98, MASS defends it at #128; the other way MASS #129 into MIZ's #19.
Rushing game
MIZ
Clear advantage
MIZ rushing ranks #18, MASS defends it at #125; the other way MASS #132 into MIZ's #33.
Third down & red zone
MIZ
Clear advantage
MIZ third-down conversion ranks #30, MASS defends it at #131; the other way MASS #131 into MIZ's #38.
Big plays
=
Even
MASS rush explosiveness ranks #18, MIZ defends it at #51; the other way MIZ #23 into MASS's #14.
Pass protection & rush
MIZ
Clear advantage
MIZ sack rate ranks #91, MASS defends it at #120; the other way MASS #106 into MIZ's #8.
Ball security
=
Even
MIZ turnovers / game ranks #76, MASS defends it at #125; the other way MASS #81 into MIZ's #109.
Form (last 5)
MIZ
Clear advantage
MIZ −0.4 per game over the last five, MASS −32.0.
Market
MIZ
Clear advantage
Consensus has MIZ by 44.5; the model says MIZ by 39.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket MIZ by 44.5 · model MIZ by 39.9
Mkt MIZ 44.5
Model MIZ 39.9
← MASS by 28tieMIZ by 28 →
2.4% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 57.5 · model 66.5
Mkt 57.5
Model 66.5
24 pts6096 pts
19.1% of FBS games finish between 57.5 and 66.5. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
