The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
86%Vanderbilt CommodoresStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
VAN by 18.7market VAN by 23.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
68.1 pointsmarket 57.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Vanderbilt Commodores at 86% to win, with the market at VAN by 23.5.
VAN has the advantage in rushing: VAN rushing ranks #2, USU defends it at #115; the other way USU #38 into VAN's #29.
VAN has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: VAN third-down conversion ranks #6, USU defends it at #83; the other way USU #112 into VAN's #111.
Home field is with VAN, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it VAN by 18.7 against a market VAN by 23.5: 4.8 points of daylight in USU's favour. The model's total is 68.1 against a line of 57.5: 10.6 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model VAN by 18.7 · market VAN by 23.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
USU passing ranks #51, VAN defends it at #118; the other way VAN #1 into USU's #60.
Rushing game
VAN
Clear advantage
VAN rushing ranks #2, USU defends it at #115; the other way USU #38 into VAN's #29.
Third down & red zone
VAN
Slight advantage
VAN third-down conversion ranks #6, USU defends it at #83; the other way USU #112 into VAN's #111.
Big plays
=
Even
VAN rush explosiveness ranks #2, USU defends it at #110; the other way USU #12 into VAN's #46.
Pass protection & rush
VAN
Slight advantage
VAN sack rate ranks #74, USU defends it at #70; the other way USU #125 into VAN's #79.
Ball security
USU
Slight advantage
USU turnovers / game ranks #14, VAN defends it at #91; the other way VAN #21 into USU's #64.
Form (last 5)
VAN
Slight advantage
VAN +9.2 per game over the last five, USU +6.2.
Market
VAN
Clear advantage
Consensus has VAN by 23.5; the model says VAN by 18.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket VAN by 23.5 · model VAN by 18.7
Mkt VAN 23.5
Model VAN 18.7
← USU by 28tieVAN by 28 →
5.9% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 57.5 · model 68.1
Mkt 57.5
Model 68.1
24 pts6096 pts
21.1% of FBS games finish between 57.5 and 68.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
