The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
74%Tennessee VolunteersStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TENN by 10.8market TENN by 7.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
68.3 pointsmarket 63.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Tennessee Volunteers at 74% to win, with the market at TENN by 7.5.
TENN has the advantage in rushing: TENN rushing ranks #7, MSST defends it at #99; the other way MSST #74 into TENN's #72.
TENN has the advantage in passing: TENN passing ranks #21, MSST defends it at #87; the other way MSST #78 into TENN's #59.
Form: TENN has the better last five games by 19.2 points a game (MSST -14.4, TENN +4.8).
Home field is with MSST, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it TENN by 10.8 against a market TENN by 7.5: 3.3 points of daylight in TENN's favour. The model's total is 68.3 against a line of 63.5: 4.8 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TENN by 10.8 · market TENN by 7.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
TENN
Clear advantage
TENN passing ranks #21, MSST defends it at #87; the other way MSST #78 into TENN's #59.
Rushing game
TENN
Clear advantage
TENN rushing ranks #7, MSST defends it at #99; the other way MSST #74 into TENN's #72.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
TENN third-down conversion ranks #10, MSST defends it at #96; the other way MSST #38 into TENN's #89.
Big plays
=
Even
TENN pass explosiveness ranks #56, MSST defends it at #123; the other way MSST #18 into TENN's #53.
Pass protection & rush
TENN
Clear advantage
TENN sack rate ranks #33, MSST defends it at #99; the other way MSST #128 into TENN's #54.
Ball security
=
Even
TENN turnovers / game ranks #56, MSST defends it at #53; the other way MSST #53 into TENN's #37.
Form (last 5)
TENN
Clear advantage
MSST −14.4 per game over the last five, TENN +4.8.
Market
TENN
Clear advantage
Consensus has TENN by 7.5; the model says TENN by 10.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket TENN by 7.5 · model TENN by 10.8
Mkt TENN 7.5
Model TENN 10.8
← TENN by 28tieMSST by 28 →
3.1% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 63.5 · model 68.3
Mkt 63.5
Model 68.3
24 pts6096 pts
7.7% of FBS games finish between 63.5 and 68.3. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
