The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
73%Georgia BulldogsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
UGA by 10.4market UGA by 2.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
56.9 pointsmarket 53.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Georgia Bulldogs at 73% to win, with the market at UGA by 2.5.
UGA has the advantage in rushing: UGA rushing ranks #36, ALA defends it at #61; the other way ALA #106 into UGA's #10.
UGA has the advantage in big plays: UGA rush explosiveness ranks #85, ALA defends it at #84; the other way ALA #122 into UGA's #2.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours ALA. ALA sack rate ranks #55, UGA defends it at #117; the other way UGA #41 into ALA's #30. The pick still lands on UGA because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: UGA has the better last five games by 12.6 points a game (UGA +16.0, ALA +3.4).
Home field is with UGA, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it UGA by 10.4 against a market UGA by 2.5: 7.9 points of daylight in UGA's favour. The model's total is 56.9 against a line of 53.5: 3.4 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model UGA by 10.4 · market UGA by 2.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
ALA
Slight advantage
ALA passing ranks #36, UGA defends it at #73; the other way UGA #38 into ALA's #28.
Rushing game
UGA
Clear advantage
UGA rushing ranks #36, ALA defends it at #61; the other way ALA #106 into UGA's #10.
Third down & red zone
UGA
Slight advantage
UGA points / scoring opportunity ranks #7, ALA defends it at #66; the other way ALA #38 into UGA's #68.
Big plays
UGA
Slight advantage
UGA rush explosiveness ranks #85, ALA defends it at #84; the other way ALA #122 into UGA's #2.
Pass protection & rush
ALA
Clear advantage
ALA sack rate ranks #55, UGA defends it at #117; the other way UGA #41 into ALA's #30.
Ball security
ALA
Slight advantage
ALA turnovers / game ranks #15, UGA defends it at #108; the other way UGA #22 into ALA's #59.
Form (last 5)
UGA
Clear advantage
UGA +16.0 per game over the last five, ALA +3.4.
Market
UGA
Slight advantage
Consensus has UGA by 2.5; the model says UGA by 10.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket UGA by 2.5 · model UGA by 10.4
Mkt UGA 2.5
Model UGA 10.4
← ALA by 28tieUGA by 28 →
18.8% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 3 and 7 and 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 53.5 · model 56.9
Mkt 53.5
Model 56.9
24 pts6096 pts
7.1% of FBS games finish between 53.5 and 56.9. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
