The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
75%Houston CougarsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
HOU by 11.6market HOU by 11.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
42.7 pointsmarket 48.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Houston Cougars at 75% to win, with the market at HOU by 11.5.
HOU has the advantage in passing: HOU passing ranks #42, ORST defends it at #95; the other way ORST #122 into HOU's #54.
HOU has the advantage in big plays: HOU pass explosiveness ranks #16, ORST defends it at #135; the other way ORST #132 into HOU's #52.
Rest: HOU has 8 more days since its last game (ORST 6d, HOU 14d).
Home field is with ORST, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it HOU by 11.6 against a market HOU by 11.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 42.7 against a line of 48.5: 5.8 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model HOU by 11.6 · market HOU by 11.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU passing ranks #42, ORST defends it at #95; the other way ORST #122 into HOU's #54.
Rushing game
=
Even
HOU rushing ranks #125, ORST defends it at #65; the other way ORST #120 into HOU's #48.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
HOU third-down conversion ranks #57, ORST defends it at #16; the other way ORST #102 into HOU's #41.
Big plays
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU pass explosiveness ranks #16, ORST defends it at #135; the other way ORST #132 into HOU's #52.
Pass protection & rush
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU sack rate ranks #30, ORST defends it at #123; the other way ORST #73 into HOU's #50.
Ball security
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU turnovers / game ranks #39, ORST defends it at #118; the other way ORST #116 into HOU's #51.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
ORST −2.0 per game over the last five, HOU 0.0.
Market
HOU
Clear advantage
Consensus has HOU by 11.5; the model says HOU by 11.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket HOU by 11.5 · model HOU by 11.6
Mkt HOU 11.5
Model HOU 11.6
← HOU by 28tieORST by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 48.5 · model 42.7
Mkt 48.5
Model 42.7
24 pts6096 pts
13.7% of FBS games finish between 48.5 and 42.7. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
