The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
73%California Golden BearsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
CAL by 10.6market CAL by 14
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
42.4 pointsmarket 47.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has California Golden Bears at 73% to win, with the market at CAL by 14.
Counterpoint: rushing favours SDSU. SDSU rushing ranks #35, CAL defends it at #123; the other way CAL #127 into SDSU's #51. The pick still lands on CAL because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: SDSU has 7 more days since its last game (SDSU 14d, CAL 7d).
Home field is with SDSU, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it CAL by 10.6 against a market CAL by 14: 3.4 points of daylight in SDSU's favour. The model's total is 42.4 against a line of 47.5: 5.1 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model CAL by 10.6 · market CAL by 14
ⓘMost of these areas favor SDSU, but the model still picks CAL. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
CAL passing ranks #64, SDSU defends it at #2; the other way SDSU #125 into CAL's #40.
Rushing game
SDSU
Clear advantage
SDSU rushing ranks #35, CAL defends it at #123; the other way CAL #127 into SDSU's #51.
Third down & red zone
SDSU
Slight advantage
SDSU points / scoring opportunity ranks #90, CAL defends it at #71; the other way CAL #65 into SDSU's #3.
Big plays
SDSU
Slight advantage
SDSU pass explosiveness ranks #20, CAL defends it at #10; the other way CAL #107 into SDSU's #16.
Pass protection & rush
SDSU
Clear advantage
SDSU sack rate ranks #77, CAL defends it at #108; the other way CAL #78 into SDSU's #25.
Ball security
SDSU
Slight advantage
SDSU turnovers / game ranks #54, CAL defends it at #98; the other way CAL #63 into SDSU's #54.
Form (last 5)
SDSU
Slight advantage
SDSU −1.6 per game over the last five, CAL −5.8.
Market
CAL
Clear advantage
Consensus has CAL by 14; the model says CAL by 10.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket CAL by 14 · model CAL by 10.6
Mkt CAL 14
Model CAL 10.6
← CAL by 28tieSDSU by 28 →
2.7% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 14, a number 4.1% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 47.5 · model 42.4
Mkt 47.5
Model 42.4
24 pts6096 pts
10.5% of FBS games finish between 47.5 and 42.4. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
