The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
54%UTSA RoadrunnersLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
UTSA by 1.6market UTSA by 4.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
60.4 pointsmarket 58.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has UTSA Roadrunners at 54% to win, with the market at UTSA by 4.5.
UTSA has the advantage in passing: UTSA passing ranks #47, CSU defends it at #120; the other way CSU #107 into UTSA's #81.
UTSA has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: UTSA third-down conversion ranks #71, CSU defends it at #130; the other way CSU #122 into UTSA's #29.
Rest: CSU has 7 more days since its last game (CSU 14d, UTSA 7d).
Form: UTSA has the better last five games by 33.8 points a game (CSU -22.4, UTSA +11.4).
Home field is with CSU, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it UTSA by 1.6 against a market UTSA by 4.5: 2.9 points of daylight in CSU's favour. The model's total is 60.4 against a line of 58.5: 1.9 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model UTSA by 1.6 · market UTSA by 4.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
UTSA
Clear advantage
UTSA passing ranks #47, CSU defends it at #120; the other way CSU #107 into UTSA's #81.
Rushing game
UTSA
Clear advantage
UTSA rushing ranks #27, CSU defends it at #87; the other way CSU #87 into UTSA's #79.
Third down & red zone
UTSA
Clear advantage
UTSA third-down conversion ranks #71, CSU defends it at #130; the other way CSU #122 into UTSA's #29.
Big plays
UTSA
Slight advantage
UTSA rush explosiveness ranks #5, CSU defends it at #39; the other way CSU #117 into UTSA's #70.
Pass protection & rush
UTSA
Clear advantage
UTSA sack rate ranks #23, CSU defends it at #104; the other way CSU #111 into UTSA's #80.
Ball security
UTSA
Clear advantage
UTSA turnovers / game ranks #20, CSU defends it at #60; the other way CSU #115 into UTSA's #57.
Form (last 5)
UTSA
Clear advantage
CSU −22.4 per game over the last five, UTSA +11.4.
Market
UTSA
Clear advantage
Consensus has UTSA by 4.5; the model says UTSA by 1.6.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket UTSA by 4.5 · model UTSA by 1.6
Mkt UTSA 4.5
Model UTSA 1.6
← UTSA by 28tieCSU by 28 →
7.2% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 58.5 · model 60.4
Mkt 58.5
Model 60.4
24 pts6096 pts
4.0% of FBS games finish between 58.5 and 60.4. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
