The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
74%Boise State BroncosStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
BOIS by 11.2market BOIS by 10.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
49.2 pointsmarket 51.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Boise State Broncos at 74% to win, with the market at BOIS by 10.5.
BOIS has the advantage in passing: BOIS passing ranks #81, AFA defends it at #135; the other way AFA #6 into BOIS's #9.
Counterpoint: big plays favours AFA. AFA pass explosiveness ranks #2, BOIS defends it at #115; the other way BOIS #43 into AFA's #32. The pick still lands on BOIS because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: BOIS has 8 more days since its last game (AFA 7d, BOIS 15d).
Home field is with AFA, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it BOIS by 11.2 against a market BOIS by 10.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 49.2 against a line of 51.5: 2.3 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model BOIS by 11.2 · market BOIS by 10.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
BOIS
Slight advantage
BOIS passing ranks #81, AFA defends it at #135; the other way AFA #6 into BOIS's #9.
Rushing game
=
Even
BOIS rushing ranks #43, AFA defends it at #135; the other way AFA #17 into BOIS's #105.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
BOIS third-down conversion ranks #26, AFA defends it at #134; the other way AFA #7 into BOIS's #22.
Big plays
AFA
Slight advantage
AFA pass explosiveness ranks #2, BOIS defends it at #115; the other way BOIS #43 into AFA's #32.
Pass protection & rush
BOIS
Clear advantage
BOIS sack rate ranks #51, AFA defends it at #111; the other way AFA #104 into BOIS's #55.
Ball security
=
Even
BOIS turnovers / game ranks #96, AFA defends it at #115; the other way AFA #27 into BOIS's #28.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
AFA +0.2 per game over the last five, BOIS +1.6.
Market
BOIS
Clear advantage
Consensus has BOIS by 10.5; the model says BOIS by 11.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket BOIS by 10.5 · model BOIS by 11.2
Mkt BOIS 10.5
Model BOIS 11.2
← BOIS by 28tieAFA by 28 →
0.9% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 51.5 · model 49.2
Mkt 51.5
Model 49.2
24 pts6096 pts
5.2% of FBS games finish between 51.5 and 49.2. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
