The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
74%Toledo RocketsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TOL by 11.1market TOL by 13.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
53.6 pointsmarket 48.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Toledo Rockets at 74% to win, with the market at TOL by 13.5.
TOL has the advantage in passing: TOL passing ranks #59, WMU defends it at #11; the other way WMU #119 into TOL's #3.
TOL has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: TOL points / scoring opportunity ranks #54, WMU defends it at #14; the other way WMU #104 into TOL's #4.
Home field is with WMU, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it TOL by 11.1 against a market TOL by 13.5: 2.4 points of daylight in WMU's favour. The model's total is 53.6 against a line of 48.5: 5.1 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TOL by 11.1 · market TOL by 13.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
TOL
Clear advantage
TOL passing ranks #59, WMU defends it at #11; the other way WMU #119 into TOL's #3.
Rushing game
=
Even
WMU rushing ranks #51, TOL defends it at #19; the other way TOL #63 into WMU's #31.
Third down & red zone
TOL
Slight advantage
TOL points / scoring opportunity ranks #54, WMU defends it at #14; the other way WMU #104 into TOL's #4.
Big plays
TOL
Slight advantage
TOL rush explosiveness ranks #101, WMU defends it at #103; the other way WMU #98 into TOL's #18.
Pass protection & rush
TOL
Clear advantage
TOL sack rate ranks #9, WMU defends it at #7; the other way WMU #92 into TOL's #1.
Ball security
=
Even
WMU turnovers / game ranks #38, TOL defends it at #29; the other way TOL #50 into WMU's #24.
Form (last 5)
TOL
Slight advantage
WMU +15.0 per game over the last five, TOL +20.4.
Market
TOL
Clear advantage
Consensus has TOL by 13.5; the model says TOL by 11.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket TOL by 13.5 · model TOL by 11.1
Mkt TOL 13.5
Model TOL 11.1
← TOL by 28tieWMU by 28 →
1.7% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 48.5 · model 53.6
Mkt 48.5
Model 53.6
24 pts6096 pts
11.1% of FBS games finish between 48.5 and 53.6. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
