The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
95%Vanderbilt CommodoresStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
VAN by 28.1market VAN by 27.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
56.7 pointsmarket 53.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Vanderbilt Commodores at 95% to win, with the market at VAN by 27.5.
VAN has the advantage in rushing: VAN rushing ranks #2, GAST defends it at #120; the other way GAST #83 into VAN's #29.
VAN has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: VAN points / scoring opportunity ranks #3, GAST defends it at #129; the other way GAST #100 into VAN's #90.
Form: VAN has the better last five games by 21.4 points a game (VAN +9.2, GAST -12.2).
Home field is with VAN, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it VAN by 28.1 against a market VAN by 27.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 56.7 against a line of 53.5: 3.2 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model VAN by 28.1 · market VAN by 27.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
VAN
Clear advantage
VAN passing ranks #1, GAST defends it at #129; the other way GAST #87 into VAN's #118.
Rushing game
VAN
Clear advantage
VAN rushing ranks #2, GAST defends it at #120; the other way GAST #83 into VAN's #29.
Third down & red zone
VAN
Clear advantage
VAN points / scoring opportunity ranks #3, GAST defends it at #129; the other way GAST #100 into VAN's #90.
Big plays
VAN
Clear advantage
VAN rush explosiveness ranks #2, GAST defends it at #82; the other way GAST #111 into VAN's #46.
Pass protection & rush
GAST
Slight advantage
GAST sack rate ranks #16, VAN defends it at #79; the other way VAN #74 into GAST's #106.
Ball security
VAN
Clear advantage
VAN turnovers / game ranks #21, GAST defends it at #133; the other way GAST #87 into VAN's #91.
Form (last 5)
VAN
Clear advantage
VAN +9.2 per game over the last five, GAST −12.2.
Market
VAN
Clear advantage
Consensus has VAN by 27.5; the model says VAN by 28.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket VAN by 27.5 · model VAN by 28.1
Mkt VAN 27.5
Model VAN 28.1
← GAST by 28tieVAN by 28 →
2.4% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 53.5 · model 56.7
Mkt 53.5
Model 56.7
24 pts6096 pts
7.1% of FBS games finish between 53.5 and 56.7. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
