The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
98%Oregon DucksStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ORE by 35.8market ORE by 33.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
61.2 pointsmarket 58.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Oregon Ducks at 98% to win, with the market at ORE by 33.5.
ORE has the advantage in passing: ORE passing ranks #16, ORST defends it at #95; the other way ORST #122 into ORE's #27.
ORE has the advantage in rushing: ORE rushing ranks #19, ORST defends it at #65; the other way ORST #120 into ORE's #37.
Form: ORE has the better last five games by 8.6 points a game (ORE +6.6, ORST -2.0).
Home field is with ORE, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it ORE by 35.8 against a market ORE by 33.5: 2.3 points of daylight in ORE's favour. The model's total is 61.2 against a line of 58.5: 2.7 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ORE by 35.8 · market ORE by 33.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
ORE
Clear advantage
ORE passing ranks #16, ORST defends it at #95; the other way ORST #122 into ORE's #27.
Rushing game
ORE
Clear advantage
ORE rushing ranks #19, ORST defends it at #65; the other way ORST #120 into ORE's #37.
Third down & red zone
ORE
Slight advantage
ORE third-down conversion ranks #18, ORST defends it at #16; the other way ORST #102 into ORE's #53.
Big plays
ORE
Clear advantage
ORE pass explosiveness ranks #38, ORST defends it at #135; the other way ORST #132 into ORE's #89.
Pass protection & rush
ORE
Clear advantage
ORE sack rate ranks #32, ORST defends it at #123; the other way ORST #73 into ORE's #63.
Ball security
ORE
Clear advantage
ORE turnovers / game ranks #34, ORST defends it at #118; the other way ORST #116 into ORE's #50.
Form (last 5)
ORE
Clear advantage
ORE +6.6 per game over the last five, ORST −2.0.
Market
ORE
Clear advantage
Consensus has ORE by 33.5; the model says ORE by 35.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ORE by 33.5 · model ORE by 35.8
Mkt ORE 33.5
Model ORE 35.8
← ORST by 28tieORE by 28 →
2.6% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 58.5 · model 61.2
Mkt 58.5
Model 61.2
24 pts6096 pts
6.0% of FBS games finish between 58.5 and 61.2. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
