The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
53%Air Force FalconsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
AFA by 1.1market AFA by 4
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
59.1 pointsmarket 51.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Air Force Falcons at 53% to win, with the market at AFA by 4.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours USU. USU turnovers / game ranks #14, AFA defends it at #115; the other way AFA #27 into USU's #64. The pick still lands on AFA because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Rest: AFA has 7 more days since its last game (USU 7d, AFA 14d).
Home field is with USU, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it AFA by 1.1 against a market AFA by 4: 2.9 points of daylight in USU's favour. The model's total is 59.1 against a line of 51.5: 7.6 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model AFA by 1.1 · market AFA by 4
ⓘMost of these areas favor USU, but the model still picks AFA. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
USU
Slight advantage
USU passing ranks #51, AFA defends it at #135; the other way AFA #6 into USU's #60.
Rushing game
=
Even
AFA rushing ranks #17, USU defends it at #115; the other way USU #38 into AFA's #135.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
AFA third-down conversion ranks #7, USU defends it at #83; the other way USU #112 into AFA's #134.
Big plays
=
Even
USU rush explosiveness ranks #12, AFA defends it at #133; the other way AFA #63 into USU's #110.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
USU sack rate ranks #125, AFA defends it at #111; the other way AFA #104 into USU's #70.
Ball security
USU
Clear advantage
USU turnovers / game ranks #14, AFA defends it at #115; the other way AFA #27 into USU's #64.
Form (last 5)
USU
Slight advantage
USU +6.2 per game over the last five, AFA +0.2.
Market
AFA
Clear advantage
Consensus has AFA by 4; the model says AFA by 1.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket AFA by 4 · model AFA by 1.1
Mkt AFA 4
Model AFA 1.1
← AFA by 28tieUSU by 28 →
5.7% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 4, a number 3.4% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 51.5 · model 59.1
Mkt 51.5
Model 59.1
24 pts6096 pts
18.8% of FBS games finish between 51.5 and 59.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
