The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
98%Iowa HawkeyesStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
IOWA by 35.8market IOWA by 35.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
51.3 pointsmarket 44.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Iowa Hawkeyes at 98% to win, with the market at IOWA by 35.5.
IOWA has the advantage in passing: IOWA passing ranks #89, MASS defends it at #128; the other way MASS #129 into IOWA's #20.
IOWA has the advantage in rushing: IOWA rushing ranks #20, MASS defends it at #125; the other way MASS #132 into IOWA's #46.
Form: IOWA has the better last five games by 37.4 points a game (IOWA +5.4, MASS -32.0).
Home field is with IOWA, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it IOWA by 35.8 against a market IOWA by 35.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 51.3 against a line of 44.5: 6.8 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model IOWA by 35.8 · market IOWA by 35.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
IOWA
Clear advantage
IOWA passing ranks #89, MASS defends it at #128; the other way MASS #129 into IOWA's #20.
Rushing game
IOWA
Clear advantage
IOWA rushing ranks #20, MASS defends it at #125; the other way MASS #132 into IOWA's #46.
Third down & red zone
IOWA
Clear advantage
IOWA third-down conversion ranks #34, MASS defends it at #131; the other way MASS #131 into IOWA's #23.
Big plays
=
Even
IOWA pass explosiveness ranks #68, MASS defends it at #102; the other way MASS #134 into IOWA's #8.
Pass protection & rush
IOWA
Clear advantage
IOWA sack rate ranks #71, MASS defends it at #120; the other way MASS #106 into IOWA's #61.
Ball security
IOWA
Clear advantage
IOWA turnovers / game ranks #28, MASS defends it at #125; the other way MASS #81 into IOWA's #95.
Form (last 5)
IOWA
Clear advantage
IOWA +5.4 per game over the last five, MASS −32.0.
Market
IOWA
Clear advantage
Consensus has IOWA by 35.5; the model says IOWA by 35.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket IOWA by 35.5 · model IOWA by 35.8
Mkt IOWA 35.5
Model IOWA 35.8
← MASS by 28tieIOWA by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 44.5 · model 51.3
Mkt 44.5
Model 51.3
24 pts6096 pts
17.2% of FBS games finish between 44.5 and 51.3. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
