The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
78%USC TrojansStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
USC by 13.0market USC by 20.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
62.3 pointsmarket 59.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has USC Trojans at 78% to win, with the market at USC by 20.5.
USC has the advantage in passing: USC passing ranks #3, PUR defends it at #131; the other way PUR #115 into USC's #38.
USC has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: USC points / scoring opportunity ranks #10, PUR defends it at #106; the other way PUR #119 into USC's #56.
Form: USC has the better last five games by 29.6 points a game (PUR -24.2, USC +5.4).
Home field is with PUR, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it USC by 13.0 against a market USC by 20.5: 7.5 points of daylight in PUR's favour. The model's total is 62.3 against a line of 59.5: 2.8 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model USC by 13.0 · market USC by 20.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
USC
Clear advantage
USC passing ranks #3, PUR defends it at #131; the other way PUR #115 into USC's #38.
Rushing game
USC
Slight advantage
USC rushing ranks #37, PUR defends it at #111; the other way PUR #57 into USC's #84.
Third down & red zone
USC
Clear advantage
USC points / scoring opportunity ranks #10, PUR defends it at #106; the other way PUR #119 into USC's #56.
Big plays
USC
Slight advantage
USC pass explosiveness ranks #36, PUR defends it at #101; the other way PUR #117 into USC's #76.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
USC sack rate ranks #4, PUR defends it at #36; the other way PUR #28 into USC's #37.
Ball security
USC
Clear advantage
USC turnovers / game ranks #66, PUR defends it at #127; the other way PUR #121 into USC's #55.
Form (last 5)
USC
Clear advantage
PUR −24.2 per game over the last five, USC +5.4.
Market
USC
Clear advantage
Consensus has USC by 20.5; the model says USC by 13.0.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket USC by 20.5 · model USC by 13.0
Mkt USC 20.5
Model USC 13.0
← USC by 28tiePUR by 28 →
6.0% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 59.5 · model 62.3
Mkt 59.5
Model 62.3
24 pts6096 pts
5.5% of FBS games finish between 59.5 and 62.3. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
