The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
77%Nevada Wolf PackStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
NEV by 12.9market NEV by 9.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
49.7 pointsmarket 49.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Nevada Wolf Pack at 77% to win, with the market at NEV by 9.5.
NEV has the advantage in passing: NEV passing ranks #134, MTSU defends it at #125; the other way MTSU #92 into NEV's #44.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours MTSU. MTSU turnovers / game ranks #33, NEV defends it at #70; the other way NEV #133 into MTSU's #83. The pick still lands on NEV because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with NEV, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it NEV by 12.9 against a market NEV by 9.5: 3.4 points of daylight in NEV's favour. The model's total is 49.7 against a line of 49.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model NEV by 12.9 · market NEV by 9.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor MTSU, but the model still picks NEV. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
NEV
Slight advantage
NEV passing ranks #134, MTSU defends it at #125; the other way MTSU #92 into NEV's #44.
Rushing game
MTSU
Clear advantage
MTSU rushing ranks #114, NEV defends it at #130; the other way NEV #96 into MTSU's #34.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
MTSU points / scoring opportunity ranks #116, NEV defends it at #112; the other way NEV #132 into MTSU's #105.
Big plays
=
Even
NEV pass explosiveness ranks #122, MTSU defends it at #99; the other way MTSU #115 into NEV's #2.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
NEV sack rate ranks #72, MTSU defends it at #89; the other way MTSU #99 into NEV's #100.
Ball security
MTSU
Clear advantage
MTSU turnovers / game ranks #33, NEV defends it at #70; the other way NEV #133 into MTSU's #83.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
NEV −6.4 per game over the last five, MTSU −4.8.
Market
NEV
Clear advantage
Consensus has NEV by 9.5; the model says NEV by 12.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket NEV by 9.5 · model NEV by 12.9
Mkt NEV 9.5
Model NEV 12.9
← MTSU by 28tieNEV by 28 →
4.5% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 10. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 49.5 · model 49.7
Mkt 49.5
Model 49.7
24 pts6096 pts
Model and market agree on the total to within half a point. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
