The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
56%Colorado BuffaloesLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
COLO by 2.5market HOU by 4
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
40.1 pointsmarket 45.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Colorado Buffaloes at 56% to win, with the market at HOU by 4.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours HOU. HOU sack rate ranks #30, COLO defends it at #125; the other way COLO #130 into HOU's #50. The pick still lands on COLO because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: HOU has the better last five games by 24.6 points a game (HOU +0.0, COLO -24.6).
Home field is with HOU, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it COLO by 2.5 against a market HOU by 4: 6.5 points of daylight in COLO's favour. The model's total is 40.1 against a line of 45.5: 5.4 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model COLO by 2.5 · market HOU by 4
ⓘMost of these areas favor HOU, but the model still picks COLO. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU passing ranks #42, COLO defends it at #123; the other way COLO #99 into HOU's #54.
Rushing game
=
Even
COLO rushing ranks #98, HOU defends it at #48; the other way HOU #125 into COLO's #58.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
HOU third-down conversion ranks #57, COLO defends it at #37; the other way COLO #85 into HOU's #41.
Big plays
HOU
Slight advantage
HOU pass explosiveness ranks #16, COLO defends it at #131; the other way COLO #9 into HOU's #52.
Pass protection & rush
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU sack rate ranks #30, COLO defends it at #125; the other way COLO #130 into HOU's #50.
Ball security
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU turnovers / game ranks #39, COLO defends it at #69; the other way COLO #88 into HOU's #51.
Form (last 5)
HOU
Clear advantage
HOU 0.0 per game over the last five, COLO −24.6.
Market
HOU
Clear advantage
Consensus has HOU by 4; the model says COLO by 2.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket HOU by 4 · model COLO by 2.5
Mkt HOU 4
Model COLO 2.5
← COLO by 28tieHOU by 28 →
10.7% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 4, a number 3.4% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 45.5 · model 40.1
Mkt 45.5
Model 40.1
24 pts6096 pts
11.5% of FBS games finish between 45.5 and 40.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
