The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
58%Fresno State BulldogsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
FRES by 3.4market ORST by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
51.4 pointsmarket 44.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Fresno State Bulldogs at 58% to win, with the market at ORST by 1.5.
FRES has the advantage in passing: FRES passing ranks #71, ORST defends it at #95; the other way ORST #122 into FRES's #13.
FRES has the advantage in big plays: FRES rush explosiveness ranks #59, ORST defends it at #69; the other way ORST #134 into FRES's #6.
Form: FRES has the better last five games by 17.0 points a game (ORST -2.0, FRES +15.0).
Home field is with ORST, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it FRES by 3.4 against a market ORST by 1.5: 4.9 points of daylight in FRES's favour. The model's total is 51.4 against a line of 44.5: 6.9 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model FRES by 3.4 · market ORST by 1.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
FRES
Clear advantage
FRES passing ranks #71, ORST defends it at #95; the other way ORST #122 into FRES's #13.
Rushing game
FRES
Slight advantage
FRES rushing ranks #110, ORST defends it at #65; the other way ORST #120 into FRES's #49.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
FRES points / scoring opportunity ranks #110, ORST defends it at #46; the other way ORST #127 into FRES's #33.
Big plays
FRES
Clear advantage
FRES rush explosiveness ranks #59, ORST defends it at #69; the other way ORST #134 into FRES's #6.
Pass protection & rush
FRES
Clear advantage
FRES sack rate ranks #44, ORST defends it at #123; the other way ORST #73 into FRES's #46.
Ball security
FRES
Clear advantage
FRES turnovers / game ranks #102, ORST defends it at #118; the other way ORST #116 into FRES's #8.
Form (last 5)
FRES
Clear advantage
ORST −2.0 per game over the last five, FRES +15.0.
Market
ORST
Slight advantage
Consensus has ORST by 1.5; the model says FRES by 3.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ORST by 1.5 · model FRES by 3.4
Mkt ORST 1.5
Model FRES 3.4
← FRES by 28tieORST by 28 →
8.5% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 44.5 · model 51.4
Mkt 44.5
Model 51.4
24 pts6096 pts
17.2% of FBS games finish between 44.5 and 51.4. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
