The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
80%Ole Miss RebelsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
MISS by 14.5market MISS by 7.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
50.2 pointsmarket 51.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Ole Miss Rebels at 80% to win, with the market at MISS by 7.5.
MISS has the advantage in passing: MISS passing ranks #7, UK defends it at #80; the other way UK #93 into MISS's #23.
MISS has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: MISS points / scoring opportunity ranks #19, UK defends it at #99; the other way UK #56 into MISS's #24.
Form: MISS has the better last five games by 12.0 points a game (UK +0.2, MISS +12.2).
Home field is with UK, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it MISS by 14.5 against a market MISS by 7.5: 7.0 points of daylight in MISS's favour. The model's total is 50.2 against a line of 51.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model MISS by 14.5 · market MISS by 7.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
MISS
Clear advantage
MISS passing ranks #7, UK defends it at #80; the other way UK #93 into MISS's #23.
Rushing game
=
Even
UK rushing ranks #89, MISS defends it at #119; the other way MISS #49 into UK's #56.
Third down & red zone
MISS
Clear advantage
MISS points / scoring opportunity ranks #19, UK defends it at #99; the other way UK #56 into MISS's #24.
Big plays
=
Even
UK rush explosiveness ranks #120, MISS defends it at #120; the other way MISS #61 into UK's #38.
Pass protection & rush
MISS
Clear advantage
MISS sack rate ranks #13, UK defends it at #60; the other way UK #87 into MISS's #33.
Ball security
MISS
Clear advantage
MISS turnovers / game ranks #24, UK defends it at #81; the other way UK #126 into MISS's #106.
Form (last 5)
MISS
Clear advantage
UK +0.2 per game over the last five, MISS +12.2.
Market
MISS
Clear advantage
Consensus has MISS by 7.5; the model says MISS by 14.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket MISS by 7.5 · model MISS by 14.5
Mkt MISS 7.5
Model MISS 14.5
← MISS by 28tieUK by 28 →
7.2% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 10 and 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 51.5 · model 50.2
Mkt 51.5
Model 50.2
24 pts6096 pts
3.6% of FBS games finish between 51.5 and 50.2. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
