The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
54%Iowa State CyclonesLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ISU by 1.5market ISU by 1.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
50.6 pointsno line posted
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Iowa State Cyclones at 54% to win, with the market at ISU by 1.5.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours IOWA. IOWA sack rate ranks #71, ISU defends it at #129; the other way ISU #82 into IOWA's #61. The pick still lands on ISU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with ISU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it ISU by 1.5 against a market ISU by 1.5: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 50.6; no line is posted yet to compare.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ISU by 1.5 · market ISU by 1.5
ⓘMost of these areas favor IOWA, but the model still picks ISU. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
=
Even
ISU passing ranks #45, IOWA defends it at #20; the other way IOWA #89 into ISU's #64.
Rushing game
=
Even
ISU rushing ranks #42, IOWA defends it at #46; the other way IOWA #20 into ISU's #15.
Third down & red zone
IOWA
Clear advantage
IOWA third-down conversion ranks #34, ISU defends it at #63; the other way ISU #69 into IOWA's #23.
Big plays
=
Even
IOWA pass explosiveness ranks #68, ISU defends it at #73; the other way ISU #54 into IOWA's #8.
Pass protection & rush
IOWA
Clear advantage
IOWA sack rate ranks #71, ISU defends it at #129; the other way ISU #82 into IOWA's #61.
Ball security
ISU
Slight advantage
ISU turnovers / game ranks #59, IOWA defends it at #95; the other way IOWA #28 into ISU's #39.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
ISU +3.0 per game over the last five, IOWA +5.4.
Market
ISU
Slight advantage
Consensus has ISU by 1.5; the model says ISU by 1.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ISU by 1.5 · model ISU by 1.5
Mkt ISU 1.5
Model ISU 1.5
← IOWA by 28tieISU by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
