The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
92%Oregon DucksStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
ORE by 24.7market ORE by 28.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
62.2 pointsmarket 55.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Oregon Ducks at 92% to win, with the market at ORE by 28.5.
ORE has the advantage in passing: ORE passing ranks #16, OKST defends it at #132; the other way OKST #126 into ORE's #27.
ORE has the advantage in rushing: ORE rushing ranks #19, OKST defends it at #102; the other way OKST #130 into ORE's #37.
Rest: OKST has 2 more days since its last game (ORE 7d, OKST 9d).
Form: ORE has the better last five games by 22.0 points a game (ORE +6.6, OKST -15.4).
Home field is with ORE, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it ORE by 24.7 against a market ORE by 28.5: 3.8 points of daylight in OKST's favour. The model's total is 62.2 against a line of 55.5: 6.7 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model ORE by 24.7 · market ORE by 28.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
ORE
Clear advantage
ORE passing ranks #16, OKST defends it at #132; the other way OKST #126 into ORE's #27.
Rushing game
ORE
Clear advantage
ORE rushing ranks #19, OKST defends it at #102; the other way OKST #130 into ORE's #37.
Third down & red zone
ORE
Clear advantage
ORE third-down conversion ranks #18, OKST defends it at #112; the other way OKST #108 into ORE's #53.
Big plays
ORE
Clear advantage
ORE rush explosiveness ranks #37, OKST defends it at #119; the other way OKST #106 into ORE's #75.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
ORE sack rate ranks #32, OKST defends it at #64; the other way OKST #46 into ORE's #63.
Ball security
ORE
Clear advantage
ORE turnovers / game ranks #34, OKST defends it at #103; the other way OKST #89 into ORE's #50.
Form (last 5)
ORE
Clear advantage
ORE +6.6 per game over the last five, OKST −15.4.
Market
ORE
Clear advantage
Consensus has ORE by 28.5; the model says ORE by 24.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ORE by 28.5 · model ORE by 24.7
Mkt ORE 28.5
Model ORE 24.7
← OKST by 28tieORE by 28 →
5.4% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 55.5 · model 62.2
Mkt 55.5
Model 62.2
24 pts6096 pts
14.9% of FBS games finish between 55.5 and 62.2. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
