The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
57%TCU Horned FrogsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TCU by 3.1market TCU by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
56.9 pointsmarket 59.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has TCU Horned Frogs at 57% to win, with the market at TCU by 3.
TCU has the advantage in rushing: TCU rushing ranks #84, UNC defends it at #98; the other way UNC #123 into TCU's #40.
TCU has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: TCU third-down conversion ranks #14, UNC defends it at #103; the other way UNC #95 into TCU's #76.
Home field is with UNC, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it TCU by 3.1 against a market TCU by 3: essentially the same number, so there is little difference to read. The model's total is 56.9 against a line of 59.5: 2.6 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TCU by 3.1 · market TCU by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
TCU passing ranks #18, UNC defends it at #65; the other way UNC #68 into TCU's #91.
Rushing game
TCU
Clear advantage
TCU rushing ranks #84, UNC defends it at #98; the other way UNC #123 into TCU's #40.
Third down & red zone
TCU
Clear advantage
TCU third-down conversion ranks #14, UNC defends it at #103; the other way UNC #95 into TCU's #76.
Big plays
=
Even
TCU rush explosiveness ranks #119, UNC defends it at #92; the other way UNC #131 into TCU's #36.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
UNC sack rate ranks #66, TCU defends it at #82; the other way TCU #38 into UNC's #31.
Ball security
TCU
Slight advantage
TCU turnovers / game ranks #103, UNC defends it at #100; the other way UNC #69 into TCU's #33.
Form (last 5)
TCU
Slight advantage
UNC −4.8 per game over the last five, TCU −1.2.
Market
TCU
Slight advantage
Consensus has TCU by 3; the model says TCU by 3.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket TCU by 3 · model TCU by 3.1
Mkt TCU 3
Model TCU 3.1
← TCU by 28tieUNC by 28 →
The two numbers sit together; the disagreement is under half a point. The market is on 3, a number 9.3% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 59.5 · model 56.9
Mkt 59.5
Model 56.9
24 pts6096 pts
7.9% of FBS games finish between 59.5 and 56.9. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
