The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
59%California Golden BearsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
CAL by 4.1market ORST by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
49.1 pointsmarket 51.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has California Golden Bears at 59% to win, with the market at ORST by 3.
CAL has the advantage in passing: CAL passing ranks #64, ORST defends it at #95; the other way ORST #122 into CAL's #40.
CAL has the advantage in big plays: CAL pass explosiveness ranks #107, ORST defends it at #135; the other way ORST #132 into CAL's #10.
Counterpoint: rushing favours ORST. ORST rushing ranks #120, CAL defends it at #123; the other way CAL #127 into ORST's #65. The pick still lands on CAL because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with ORST, which the pick has to overcome.
ContextThe model makes it CAL by 4.1 against a market ORST by 3: 7.1 points of daylight in CAL's favour. The model's total is 49.1 against a line of 51.5: 2.4 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model CAL by 4.1 · market ORST by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
CAL
Clear advantage
CAL passing ranks #64, ORST defends it at #95; the other way ORST #122 into CAL's #40.
Rushing game
ORST
Clear advantage
ORST rushing ranks #120, CAL defends it at #123; the other way CAL #127 into ORST's #65.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
ORST third-down conversion ranks #102, CAL defends it at #97; the other way CAL #61 into ORST's #16.
Big plays
CAL
Clear advantage
CAL pass explosiveness ranks #107, ORST defends it at #135; the other way ORST #132 into CAL's #10.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
CAL sack rate ranks #78, ORST defends it at #123; the other way ORST #73 into CAL's #108.
Ball security
CAL
Clear advantage
CAL turnovers / game ranks #63, ORST defends it at #118; the other way ORST #116 into CAL's #98.
Form (last 5)
ORST
Slight advantage
ORST −2.0 per game over the last five, CAL −5.8.
Market
ORST
Slight advantage
Consensus has ORST by 3; the model says CAL by 4.1.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket ORST by 3 · model CAL by 4.1
Mkt ORST 3
Model CAL 4.1
← CAL by 28tieORST by 28 →
11.5% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 9.3% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 51.5 · model 49.1
Mkt 51.5
Model 49.1
24 pts6096 pts
5.2% of FBS games finish between 51.5 and 49.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
