The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
69%Kentucky WildcatsSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
UK by 8.5market UK by 10
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
52.3 pointsmarket 48.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Kentucky Wildcats at 69% to win, with the market at UK by 10.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours TOL. TOL sack rate ranks #9, UK defends it at #60; the other way UK #87 into TOL's #1. The pick still lands on UK because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: TOL has the better last five games by 20.2 points a game (UK +0.2, TOL +20.4).
Home field is with UK, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it UK by 8.5 against a market UK by 10: 1.5 points of daylight in TOL's favour. The model's total is 52.3 against a line of 48.5: 3.8 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model UK by 8.5 · market UK by 10
ⓘMost of these areas favor TOL, but the model still picks UK. The model rates each team on its full body of results, adjusted for who it played, plus the quarterback, rest, home field and weather. Single-area matchups like these are shown for context: over past seasons, when they point the other way the winner has been close to a coin flip, so they have not been a better guide than the ratings.
Passing game
TOL
Clear advantage
TOL passing ranks #59, UK defends it at #80; the other way UK #93 into TOL's #3.
Rushing game
TOL
Clear advantage
TOL rushing ranks #63, UK defends it at #56; the other way UK #89 into TOL's #19.
Third down & red zone
TOL
Clear advantage
TOL points / scoring opportunity ranks #54, UK defends it at #99; the other way UK #56 into TOL's #4.
Big plays
=
Even
UK pass explosiveness ranks #59, TOL defends it at #107; the other way TOL #62 into UK's #63.
Pass protection & rush
TOL
Clear advantage
TOL sack rate ranks #9, UK defends it at #60; the other way UK #87 into TOL's #1.
Ball security
TOL
Clear advantage
TOL turnovers / game ranks #50, UK defends it at #81; the other way UK #126 into TOL's #29.
Form (last 5)
TOL
Clear advantage
UK +0.2 per game over the last five, TOL +20.4.
Market
UK
Clear advantage
Consensus has UK by 10; the model says UK by 8.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket UK by 10 · model UK by 8.5
Mkt UK 10
Model UK 8.5
← TOL by 28tieUK by 28 →
0.7% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 10, a number 4.3% of games land on exactly (a push). Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 48.5 · model 52.3
Mkt 48.5
Model 52.3
24 pts6096 pts
9.8% of FBS games finish between 48.5 and 52.3. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
