The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
63%Purdue BoilermakersSolid
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
PUR by 5.7market PUR by 16.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
65.2 pointsmarket 50.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Purdue Boilermakers at 63% to win, with the market at PUR by 16.5.
PUR has the advantage in rushing: PUR rushing ranks #57, BALL defends it at #91; the other way BALL #102 into PUR's #111.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours BALL. BALL turnovers / game ranks #80, PUR defends it at #127; the other way PUR #121 into BALL's #92. The pick still lands on PUR because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: BALL has the better last five games by 9.2 points a game (PUR -24.2, BALL -15.0).
Home field is with PUR, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it PUR by 5.7 against a market PUR by 16.5: 10.8 points of daylight in BALL's favour. The model's total is 65.2 against a line of 50.5: 14.7 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model PUR by 5.7 · market PUR by 16.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
BALL passing ranks #130, PUR defends it at #131; the other way PUR #115 into BALL's #94.
Rushing game
PUR
Slight advantage
PUR rushing ranks #57, BALL defends it at #91; the other way BALL #102 into PUR's #111.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
BALL points / scoring opportunity ranks #131, PUR defends it at #106; the other way PUR #119 into BALL's #59.
Big plays
=
Even
BALL pass explosiveness ranks #64, PUR defends it at #101; the other way PUR #117 into BALL's #71.
Pass protection & rush
PUR
Clear advantage
PUR sack rate ranks #28, BALL defends it at #98; the other way BALL #134 into PUR's #36.
Ball security
BALL
Clear advantage
BALL turnovers / game ranks #80, PUR defends it at #127; the other way PUR #121 into BALL's #92.
Form (last 5)
BALL
Clear advantage
PUR −24.2 per game over the last five, BALL −15.0.
Market
PUR
Clear advantage
Consensus has PUR by 16.5; the model says PUR by 5.7.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket PUR by 16.5 · model PUR by 5.7
Mkt PUR 16.5
Model PUR 5.7
← BALL by 28tiePUR by 28 →
17.6% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key numbers 7 and 10 and 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 50.5 · model 65.2
Mkt 50.5
Model 65.2
24 pts6096 pts
33.2% of FBS games finish between 50.5 and 65.2. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
