The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
78%Texas A&M AggiesStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
TA&M by 13.2market TA&M by 21.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
63.1 pointsmarket 56.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Texas A&M Aggies at 78% to win, with the market at TA&M by 21.5.
TA&M has the advantage in passing: TA&M passing ranks #27, UTSA defends it at #81; the other way UTSA #47 into TA&M's #24.
TA&M has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: TA&M third-down conversion ranks #58, UTSA defends it at #29; the other way UTSA #71 into TA&M's #1.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours UTSA. UTSA turnovers / game ranks #20, TA&M defends it at #121; the other way TA&M #94 into UTSA's #57. The pick still lands on TA&M because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Home field is with TA&M, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it TA&M by 13.2 against a market TA&M by 21.5: 8.3 points of daylight in UTSA's favour. The model's total is 63.1 against a line of 56.5: 6.6 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model TA&M by 13.2 · market TA&M by 21.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
TA&M
Clear advantage
TA&M passing ranks #27, UTSA defends it at #81; the other way UTSA #47 into TA&M's #24.
Rushing game
=
Even
UTSA rushing ranks #27, TA&M defends it at #85; the other way TA&M #33 into UTSA's #79.
Third down & red zone
TA&M
Slight advantage
TA&M third-down conversion ranks #58, UTSA defends it at #29; the other way UTSA #71 into TA&M's #1.
Big plays
UTSA
Slight advantage
UTSA rush explosiveness ranks #5, TA&M defends it at #134; the other way TA&M #77 into UTSA's #70.
Pass protection & rush
TA&M
Clear advantage
TA&M sack rate ranks #29, UTSA defends it at #80; the other way UTSA #23 into TA&M's #4.
Ball security
UTSA
Clear advantage
UTSA turnovers / game ranks #20, TA&M defends it at #121; the other way TA&M #94 into UTSA's #57.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
TA&M +10.6 per game over the last five, UTSA +11.4.
Market
TA&M
Clear advantage
Consensus has TA&M by 21.5; the model says TA&M by 13.2.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket TA&M by 21.5 · model TA&M by 13.2
Mkt TA&M 21.5
Model TA&M 13.2
← UTSA by 28tieTA&M by 28 →
12.1% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 14. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 56.5 · model 63.1
Mkt 56.5
Model 63.1
24 pts6096 pts
15.5% of FBS games finish between 56.5 and 63.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
