The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
92%Michigan WolverinesStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
MICH by 23.9market MICH by 36.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
57.7 pointsmarket 52.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Michigan Wolverines at 92% to win, with the market at MICH by 36.5.
MICH has the advantage in rushing: MICH rushing ranks #15, UNM defends it at #28; the other way UNM #59 into MICH's #45.
Home field is with MICH, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it MICH by 23.9 against a market MICH by 36.5: 12.6 points of daylight in UNM's favour. The model's total is 57.7 against a line of 52.5: 5.2 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model MICH by 23.9 · market MICH by 36.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
UNM passing ranks #90, MICH defends it at #55; the other way MICH #95 into UNM's #57.
Rushing game
MICH
Slight advantage
MICH rushing ranks #15, UNM defends it at #28; the other way UNM #59 into MICH's #45.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
UNM points / scoring opportunity ranks #57, MICH defends it at #81; the other way MICH #74 into UNM's #17.
Big plays
=
Even
MICH rush explosiveness ranks #60, UNM defends it at #72; the other way UNM #68 into MICH's #33.
Pass protection & rush
=
Even
MICH sack rate ranks #76, UNM defends it at #15; the other way UNM #124 into MICH's #51.
Ball security
MICH
Clear advantage
MICH turnovers / game ranks #75, UNM defends it at #62; the other way UNM #123 into MICH's #42.
Form (last 5)
UNM
Slight advantage
MICH 0.0 per game over the last five, UNM +5.6.
Market
MICH
Clear advantage
Consensus has MICH by 36.5; the model says MICH by 23.9.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket MICH by 36.5 · model MICH by 23.9
Mkt MICH 36.5
Model MICH 23.9
← UNM by 28tieMICH by 28 →
14.7% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 52.5 · model 57.7
Mkt 52.5
Model 57.7
24 pts6096 pts
10.5% of FBS games finish between 52.5 and 57.7. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
