The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
86%Georgia BulldogsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
UGA by 18.8market UGA by 39.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
54.4 pointsmarket 55.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Georgia Bulldogs at 86% to win, with the market at UGA by 39.5.
UGA has the advantage in rushing: UGA rushing ranks #36, MRSH defends it at #27; the other way MRSH #101 into UGA's #10.
UGA has the advantage in big plays: UGA rush explosiveness ranks #85, MRSH defends it at #48; the other way MRSH #121 into UGA's #2.
Counterpoint: sack rate favours MRSH. MRSH sack rate ranks #34, UGA defends it at #117; the other way UGA #41 into MRSH's #45. The pick still lands on UGA because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: UGA has the better last five games by 20.8 points a game (UGA +16.0, MRSH -4.8).
Home field is with UGA, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it UGA by 18.8 against a market UGA by 39.5: 20.7 points of daylight in MRSH's favour. The model's total is 54.4 against a line of 55.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model UGA by 18.8 · market UGA by 39.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
UGA passing ranks #38, MRSH defends it at #100; the other way MRSH #17 into UGA's #73.
Rushing game
UGA
Clear advantage
UGA rushing ranks #36, MRSH defends it at #27; the other way MRSH #101 into UGA's #10.
Third down & red zone
UGA
Clear advantage
UGA third-down conversion ranks #35, MRSH defends it at #75; the other way MRSH #106 into UGA's #36.
Big plays
UGA
Clear advantage
UGA rush explosiveness ranks #85, MRSH defends it at #48; the other way MRSH #121 into UGA's #2.
Pass protection & rush
MRSH
Clear advantage
MRSH sack rate ranks #34, UGA defends it at #117; the other way UGA #41 into MRSH's #45.
Ball security
MRSH
Slight advantage
MRSH turnovers / game ranks #68, UGA defends it at #108; the other way UGA #22 into MRSH's #19.
Form (last 5)
UGA
Clear advantage
UGA +16.0 per game over the last five, MRSH −4.8.
Market
UGA
Clear advantage
Consensus has UGA by 39.5; the model says UGA by 18.8.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket UGA by 39.5 · model UGA by 18.8
Mkt UGA 39.5
Model UGA 18.8
← MRSH by 28tieUGA by 28 →
22.8% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 55.5 · model 54.4
Mkt 55.5
Model 54.4
24 pts6096 pts
3.6% of FBS games finish between 55.5 and 54.4. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
