The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
98%Penn State Nittany LionsStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
PSU by 35.5market PSU by 45.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
52.0 pointsmarket 58.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Penn State Nittany Lions at 98% to win, with the market at PSU by 45.5.
PSU has the advantage in rushing: PSU rushing ranks #28, NEV defends it at #130; the other way NEV #96 into PSU's #71.
PSU has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: PSU points / scoring opportunity ranks #25, NEV defends it at #112; the other way NEV #132 into PSU's #37.
Form: PSU has the better last five games by 18.0 points a game (PSU +11.6, NEV -6.4).
Home field is with PSU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it PSU by 35.5 against a market PSU by 45.5: 10.0 points of daylight in NEV's favour. The model's total is 52.0 against a line of 58.5: 6.5 points below it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model PSU by 35.5 · market PSU by 45.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
PSU
Clear advantage
PSU passing ranks #58, NEV defends it at #44; the other way NEV #134 into PSU's #32.
Rushing game
PSU
Clear advantage
PSU rushing ranks #28, NEV defends it at #130; the other way NEV #96 into PSU's #71.
Third down & red zone
PSU
Clear advantage
PSU points / scoring opportunity ranks #25, NEV defends it at #112; the other way NEV #132 into PSU's #37.
Big plays
=
Even
PSU rush explosiveness ranks #53, NEV defends it at #113; the other way NEV #41 into PSU's #60.
Pass protection & rush
PSU
Clear advantage
PSU sack rate ranks #69, NEV defends it at #100; the other way NEV #72 into PSU's #24.
Ball security
PSU
Clear advantage
PSU turnovers / game ranks #7, NEV defends it at #70; the other way NEV #133 into PSU's #104.
Form (last 5)
PSU
Clear advantage
PSU +11.6 per game over the last five, NEV −6.4.
Market
PSU
Clear advantage
Consensus has PSU by 45.5; the model says PSU by 35.5.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket PSU by 45.5 · model PSU by 35.5
Mkt PSU 45.5
Model PSU 35.5
← NEV by 28tiePSU by 28 →
6.0% of FBS games land between the two numbers. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 58.5 · model 52.0
Mkt 58.5
Model 52.0
24 pts6096 pts
13.2% of FBS games finish between 58.5 and 52.0. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
