The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
71%Ohio State BuckeyesStrong
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
OSU by 9.4market OSU by 3
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
48.2 pointsmarket 47.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Ohio State Buckeyes at 71% to win, with the market at OSU by 3.
OSU has the advantage in third downs and the red zone: OSU points / scoring opportunity ranks #5, TEX defends it at #76; the other way TEX #88 into OSU's #8.
OSU has the advantage in passing: OSU passing ranks #2, TEX defends it at #42; the other way TEX #49 into OSU's #7.
Counterpoint: turnovers / game favours TEX. TEX turnovers / game ranks #6, OSU defends it at #101; the other way OSU #8 into TEX's #18. The pick still lands on OSU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Form: OSU has the better last five games by 11.8 points a game (OSU +15.2, TEX +3.4).
Home field is with OSU, which supports the pick.
ContextThe model makes it OSU by 9.4 against a market OSU by 3: 6.4 points of daylight in OSU's favour. The model's total is 48.2 against a line of 47.5: in line with the market.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model OSU by 9.4 · market OSU by 3
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
OSU
Clear advantage
OSU passing ranks #2, TEX defends it at #42; the other way TEX #49 into OSU's #7.
Rushing game
=
Even
OSU rushing ranks #72, TEX defends it at #20; the other way TEX #68 into OSU's #2.
Third down & red zone
OSU
Clear advantage
OSU points / scoring opportunity ranks #5, TEX defends it at #76; the other way TEX #88 into OSU's #8.
Big plays
TEX
Clear advantage
TEX rush explosiveness ranks #73, OSU defends it at #15; the other way OSU #130 into TEX's #3.
Pass protection & rush
OSU
Slight advantage
OSU sack rate ranks #27, TEX defends it at #26; the other way TEX #57 into OSU's #5.
Ball security
TEX
Clear advantage
TEX turnovers / game ranks #6, OSU defends it at #101; the other way OSU #8 into TEX's #18.
Form (last 5)
OSU
Clear advantage
OSU +15.2 per game over the last five, TEX +3.4.
Market
OSU
Slight advantage
Consensus has OSU by 3; the model says OSU by 9.4.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket OSU by 3 · model OSU by 9.4
Mkt OSU 3
Model OSU 9.4
← TEX by 28tieOSU by 28 →
11.2% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The market is on 3, a number 9.3% of games land on exactly (a push). The model’s number is across the key number 7. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 47.5 · model 48.2
Mkt 47.5
Model 48.2
24 pts6096 pts
3.2% of FBS games finish between 47.5 and 48.2. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
