The pickThe locked winner and its win probability. A priced game's number is built on the market's no-vig price; the model's own margin and total sit beside the market's below, as context.
backtest · not locked
Win chance
55%Kansas State WildcatsLean
No moneyline was priced into this call, so it is the model's own number.
Model marginThe model's own predicted margin beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no spread pick.
KSU by 2.3market KSU by 3.5
Model totalThe model's own predicted total points beside the market's number. Context for reading the game: the model makes no over/under pick.
61.1 pointsmarket 49.5
Backtest, not locked: this game finished before the model ran on it; the calls were reconstructed from pre-game information.
Why the model calls itThe reasons behind the winner call, in plain sentences drawn from this page's numbers.
The model has Kansas State Wildcats at 55% to win, with the market at KSU by 3.5.
Counterpoint: rushing favours ISU. ISU rushing ranks #42, KSU defends it at #80; the other way KSU #44 into ISU's #15. The pick still lands on KSU because it rests on the whole season's results and the market's price, not one area.
Neutral site, so no home-field boost either way.
ContextThe model makes it KSU by 2.3 against a market KSU by 3.5: 1.2 points of daylight in ISU's favour. The model's total is 61.1 against a line of 49.5: 11.6 points above it.The model makes no spread or over/under pick: neither has shown an edge over the market in our backtests.
Matchup context: who has the advantageWhich team has the advantage in each area, and how clearly. Context for reading the game, not model inputs.
Model KSU by 2.3 · market KSU by 3.5
ⓘContext, not inputs. These areas show how the two sides match up so you can read the game. The model's call comes from the teams' overall ratings, the quarterback, rest, home field and weather, not from these tiles.
Passing game
=
Even
KSU passing ranks #82, ISU defends it at #64; the other way ISU #45 into KSU's #22.
Rushing game
ISU
Clear advantage
ISU rushing ranks #42, KSU defends it at #80; the other way KSU #44 into ISU's #15.
Third down & red zone
=
Even
ISU third-down conversion ranks #69, KSU defends it at #68; the other way KSU #94 into ISU's #63.
Big plays
ISU
Slight advantage
ISU rush explosiveness ranks #75, KSU defends it at #129; the other way KSU #3 into ISU's #5.
Pass protection & rush
KSU
Clear advantage
KSU sack rate ranks #22, ISU defends it at #129; the other way ISU #82 into KSU's #59.
Ball security
KSU
Slight advantage
KSU turnovers / game ranks #67, ISU defends it at #39; the other way ISU #59 into KSU's #4.
Form (last 5)
=
Even
KSU +3.2 per game over the last five, ISU +3.0.
Market
KSU
Clear advantage
Consensus has KSU by 3.5; the model says KSU by 2.3.
the market, for comparison
Where the lines sitWhere the market's number and the model's sit among every final margin and total in the league's history; the highlighted bars are the games that landed between the two.
3,154 FBS games since 2023
Marginmarket KSU by 3.5 · model KSU by 2.3
Mkt KSU 3.5
Model KSU 2.3
← ISU by 28tieKSU by 28 →
5.0% of FBS games land between the two numbers. The model’s number is across the key number 3. Most common margins: 3 (9.3%), 7 (7.5%), 10 (4.3%), 14 (4.1%).
Totalmarket 49.5 · model 61.1
Mkt 49.5
Model 61.1
24 pts6096 pts
26.9% of FBS games finish between 49.5 and 61.1. The league’s median total since 2023 is 53.
The model alone was backtested walk-forward (each game priced only from what came before it). Since the winner call started following the market, the calibration that counts is the record of locked picks on the results page. Margin and total are context, not picks. Model reads, not personalized advice. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
