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The Bucks (32-50 in 2025–26) host the Warriors (37-45 in 2025–26) on Dec 20, 2026, 8:00 PM ET.
Lines post the day of the game.
Lines post the morning of the game and are updated through the day.
The model's winner call: locked before the start, graded in public, built on the market's price.
The current report, a live snapshot.
Times are when the report changed on our end, last 30 days.
GSW offense ranks better in 2 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · MIL defense in 2
MIL offense ranks better in 1 of 4 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · GSW defense in 3 (3 by a clear margin)
Season box-score numbers; ranks of 30 teams. A defense ranks well for allowing less and forcing more turnovers.
GSWMIL
Expected pace: about 101 possessions a team (the two teams' average). Rank among 30 teams, 1st = best.
Rank 1 allows the most. Each defense's last 17 games from box scores, against the average defense. Books already price matchups: this is where to look, not a bet.
GSWMILNo lines posted yet: research the rotation against any number
Ryan Rollins's full breakdown holds the game-by-game chart, hit-rate splits and filters, the what-if line and market curve, every book and the line history, closing lines, the projected range, teammates and matchup tools. Checking your player views…
Checking your player views…| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Podziemski | 29.7 | 17.4 | 4.5 | 3.4 |
| Gui Santos | 29.4 | 15.3 | 4.8 | 3.5 |
| Draymond Green | 29.0 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 6.4 |
| Stephen Curry | 26.8 | 20.3 | 4.0 | 3.5 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | 25.0 | 16.7 | 6.0 | 2.3 |
| De'Anthony Melton | 24.2 | 10.4 | 3.8 | 3.1 |
| Pat Spencer | 23.0 | 9.5 | 2.9 | 3.7 |
| Gary Payton II | 21.5 | 12.1 | 4.7 | 1.9 |
| Player | Min | Pts | Reb | Ast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ousmane Dieng | 31.5 | 13.9 | 5.3 | 4.9 |
| Ryan Rollins | 30.4 | 21.3 | 4.2 | 5.4 |
| AJ Green | 29.5 | 13.1 | 3.9 | 2.3 |
| Pete Nance | 27.5 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 2.1 |
| Taurean Prince | 27.0 | 12.1 | 4.3 | 2.5 |
| Jericho Sims | 26.4 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 |
| Bobby Portis | 25.7 | 13.7 | 7.0 | 2.0 |
| Cormac Ryan | 24.5 | 14.3 | 2.5 | 1.7 |
GSW offenseper gameMIL defenseRank among 30 teams, 1st = best; a longer bar is a better rank. A defense ranks well for allowing less: lower shooting percentages, fewer points and rebounds, more turnovers forced.
2025–26 · points a game by shot type · rank 1 = the most in the league · the tick on each bar is the league average
GSW offense vs MIL defenseMIL offense vs GSW defenseFrom play-by-play: transition = the first shot within 7 seconds of a defensive rebound, turnover or opponent score; putback = within 3 seconds of the team's own offensive rebound; the rest by the shot label (spot-up = the plain jump shot). Free throws from the box score. Hover a number for the league average. An approximation of play types, not tracking data.
GSWForAgainst49% of GSW's points come in the first half, 50% for the average team.
MILForAgainst49% of MIL's points come in the first half, 50% for the average team.
Average points per game in each period, from box scores, over a team's last 17 games; overtime is pooled into the second half and the game. History, not a forecast: a team that leads late plays differently than one that trails, and a small window swings.
GSW 4series2 MIL| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2026 | MIL 113 | GSW 120 | GSW+7 | +7 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2025 | GSW 110 | MIL 120 | MIL+10 | +10 |
| Mar 18, 2025 | MIL 93 | GSW 104 | GSW+11 | +11 |
| Feb 10, 2025 | GSW 125 | MIL 111 | GSW+14 | +14 |
| Date | Road | Home | Winner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2024 | MIL 90 | GSW 125 | GSW+35 | +35 |
| Jan 13, 2024 | GSW 118 | MIL 129 | MIL+11 | +11 |
From box scores and play-by-play. Ratings are per 100 possessions (possessions estimated from box scores). Prop lines from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM; hit rates are past games against a number, not a forecast or a pick. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
| Measure | GSW37-45 · last 82 games | MIL32-50 · last 82 games | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half points for | 58.5#8 of 30 | 54.8#28 of 30 | 57.5 |
| Share of points allowed in the 1st half | 49.6%#24 of 30 | 50.9%#9 of 30 | 50.3% |
| Points allowed per 100 possessions | 112.6#14 of 30 | 116.5#4 of 30 | 112.7 |
| Possessions per game | 102.3#18 of 30 | 100.3#24 of 30 | 102.5 |
The 4 measures where these two sit furthest apart among the league's 30 ranked teams, over each team's last 82 regular-season games (Oct 2025 – Apr 2026). Rank 1 = highest in the league, even for points allowed. A rank says where a number sits, not which side it points to.