RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Jan 9, 2022
Clete Blakeman
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
11.8
≈ in line with the league average (11.4)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
92.8
≈ in line with the league average (94.0)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
9.2
≈ in line with the league average (9.0)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 505 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playSoFi Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 103 (10th of 32, 100 = league average) · 47.1 points a game in 52 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2023 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2023 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
DEN offensevsLAC defense
DEN offense ranks better in 3 of 6 matchups · LAC defense in 3 (3 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.04
#20slight
+0.06
#24
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.10
#17slight
−0.07
#18
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
37%
#22
38%
Stronger#14
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
53%
#19
54%
Stronger#13
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 16 places
8.7%
#27
7.2%
Stronger#11
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.18
#17slight
1.12
#22
LAC offensevsDEN defense
LAC offense ranks better in 3 of 6 matchups (3 by a clear margin) · DEN defense in 3 (2 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.00
#17Stronger
+0.07
#26
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 13 places
−0.23
#32
−0.06
Stronger#19
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 15 places
39%
#17
34%
Stronger#2
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
57%
#14Stronger
58%
#21
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
6.0%
#12Stronger
6.6%
#19
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.18
#19
1.41
slight#14
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
DEN offenseLAC defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
−0.04#20▲
+0.06#24▲
Pass success rate
43%#20
46%#23
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors DEN
7.7%#19
9.4%#29
Yards / dropbackfavors DEN
5.9#21
6.6#28
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
7.4
7.8
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
15%
12%
Short throws (≤5 air)
61%
52%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors DEN
+3.7#4▼
−0.9#12▼
YAC / completionfavors DEN
6.1#2
5.9#29
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors LAC
8.7%#27
7.2%#11▼
Scramble rate
6.5%
3.4%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors DEN
1.8%#7▼
1.5%#26▲
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 38 · M 18 · R 44
L 40 · M 19 · R 42
LAC offenseDEN defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors LAC
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:DEN scores 40% · allows 47%LAC scores 46% · allows 55%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
DENLACsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
DEN5 games
Scored12.6
Allowed12.6
Pass share55%
47–64% · 155 plays
LAC4 games
Scored13.5
Allowed6.8
Pass share33%
27–38% · 138 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
DEN6 games
Scored10.7
Allowed8.8
Pass share53%
47–59% · 191 plays
LAC6 games
Scored8.3
Allowed8.3
Pass share46%
36–57% · 169 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
DEN6 games
Scored17.3
Allowed11.5
Pass share63%
53–72% · 206 plays
LAC7 games
Scored11.1
Allowed12.6
Pass share66%
60–72% · 221 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
DENat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 6 · trailed 6 (of 17)
3.7
3.6Q1
5.4
6.1Q2
9.1scored9.7allowedleague 11.4
1st half
4.8
4.9Q3
8.2
5.6Q4
LACat the half: led 4 · within 3 in 6 · trailed 7 (of 17)
4.2
5.8Q1
5.1
5.9Q2
9.3scored11.7allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.4
3.9Q3
5.2
5.8Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.4
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
DENLAC
8-9
Record
5-12
21.0
Points for / game
20.4
24.3
Points against / game
23.4
5-4 / 3-5
Home / road
2-7 / 3-5
L W L L W
Last 5
L L L L L
2023 season only (not a rolling window) · 17 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
DENLAC
-0.044
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.066
0.020
EPA / play allowed
0.012
210
Pass yards / game
254
106
Rush yards / game
97
253
Pass yards allowed
269
137
Rush yards allowed
113
0.9 / 1.8
Turnovers / takeaways
0.9 / 1.4
3.1 / 2.5
Sacks allowed / made
2.5 / 2.8
15.9
First downs / game
17.2
44
Penalty yards / game
43
+0.2 · #25 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+2.6 · #17 of 52
2023 season to date · 17 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
DENLAC
5-12 · 29%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
2-12 · 14%
Last two seasons (2022–2023), DEN 34 games, LAC 35. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
19DENseriesLAC10
Avg total points
41.4
Meetings
29
Division rivals — they meet twice every season.
2025LAC 3 at DEN 19DEN
2025DEN 20 at LAC 23LAC
2024DEN 27 at LAC 34LAC
2024LAC 23 at DEN 16LAC
2023LAC 9 at DEN 16DEN
2023DEN 24 at LAC 7DEN
2022LAC 28 at DEN 31DEN
2022DEN 16 at LAC 19LAC
All 29 meetings
2021DEN 13 at LAC 34LAC
2021LAC 13 at DEN 28DEN
2020DEN 16 at LAC 19LAC
2020LAC 30 at DEN 31DEN
2019LAC 20 at DEN 23DEN
2019DEN 20 at LAC 13DEN
2018LAC 23 at DEN 9LAC
2018DEN 23 at LAC 22DEN
2017DEN 0 at LAC 21LAC
2017LAC 21 at DEN 24DEN
2016LAC 19 at DEN 27DEN
2016DEN 13 at LAC 21LAC
2015LAC 20 at DEN 27DEN
2015DEN 17 at LAC 3DEN
2014DEN 22 at LAC 10DEN
2014LAC 21 at DEN 35DEN
2013LAC 17 at DEN 24PlayoffsDEN
2013LAC 27 at DEN 20LAC
2013DEN 28 at LAC 20DEN
2012LAC 23 at DEN 30DEN
2012DEN 35 at LAC 24DEN
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Courtland SuttonWR9018.9%
Jerry JeudyWR8718.2%
Javonte WilliamsRB5812.2%
Samaje PerineRB5611.7%
Jaleel McLaughlinRB367.5%
Adam TrautmanTE357.3%
Marvin Mims Jr.WR336.9%
Brandon JohnsonWR306.3%
Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR194.0%
Lucas KrullTE142.9%
Nate AdkinsTE51.0%
Chris ManhertzTE40.8%
Greg DulcichTE40.8%
Phillip DorsettWR30.6%
Michael BurtonFB30.6%
Keenan AllenWR15024.4%
Austin EkelerRB7412.1%
Gerald EverettTE7011.4%
Quentin JohnstonWR6710.9%
Josh PalmerWR619.9%
Donald ParhamTE416.7%
Alex EricksonWR294.7%
Mike WilliamsWR264.2%
Stone SmarttTE213.4%
Jalen GuytonWR213.4%
Derius DavisWR172.8%
Keelan DossWR132.1%
Joshua KelleyRB122.0%
Isaiah SpillerRB61.0%
Simi FehokoWR20.3%
Elijah DotsonRB20.3%
Nick VannettTE10.2%
Justin HerbertQB10.2%
Denver Broncos2024–25 seasons
Los Angeles Chargers2024–25 seasons
