RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 12 games since Sep 10, 2023
Alan Eck
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
11.0
≈ in line with the league average (12.2)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
94.4
≈ in line with the league average (101.1)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
8.8
≈ in line with the league average (9.6)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 193 league games, 12 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Small sample: under 15 games. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playMercedes-Benz Superdome · TurfStadium scoring factor 107 (3rd of 32, 100 = league average) · 49 points a game in 88 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2023 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2023 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
CAR offensevsNO defense
CAR offense ranks better in 0 of 6 matchups · NO defense in 6 (5 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 25 places
−0.20
#30
−0.07
Stronger#5
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.14
#25
−0.15
Stronger#3
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
34%
#27
35%
Stronger#4
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
50%
#23
51%
Stronger#9
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
9.5%
#30
5.4%
slight#29
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.18
#18
1.71
Stronger#1
NO offensevsCAR defense
NO offense ranks better in 6 of 6 matchups (5 by a clear margin) · CAR defense in 0
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.03
#14slight
+0.02
#18
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.09
#15Stronger
+0.03
#32
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
39%
#15Stronger
40%
#22
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
54%
#17Stronger
63%
#28
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 24 places
5.4%
#7Stronger
5.2%
#31
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 28 places
0.94
#4Stronger
0.59
#32
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
CAR offenseNO defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors NO
−0.20#30
−0.07#5▲
Pass success ratefavors NO
37%#31
41%#6▲
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors NO
5.0%#32
8.5%#17▲
Yards / dropbackfavors NO
4.4#32
6.1#12▲
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
7.7
8.4
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
11%
13%
Short throws (≤5 air)
52%
49%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors NO
−1.8#24▲
−4.7#2▲
YAC / completionfavors NO
4.1#32
5.6#26▲
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
9.5%#30
5.4%#29▼
Scramble rate
4.7%
6.5%
Interception rate / Interceptions forced
1.7%#5▼
3.2%#6
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 36 · M 17 · R 47
L 38 · M 17 · R 46
NO offenseCAR defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
+0.03#14▲
+0.02#18▲
Pass success rate
45%#18
46%#20
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.
8.0%#16▲
7.5%#11
Yards / dropbackfavors CAR
6.2#17
5.8#7
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
8.3
7.3
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
13%
11%
Short throws (≤5 air)
54%
52%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.
+1.9#11▲
+0.8#15
YAC / completionfavors CAR
4.4#31
4.6#2
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors NO
5.4%#7
5.2%#31▲
Scramble rate
1.8%
2.5%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors NO
1.8%#9▼
1.7%#24▼
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 34 · M 19 · R 47
L 35 · M 15 · R 50
Carolina Panthers · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 3–4 in 2026, 13–14 in 2025
Points in the 1st half:CAR scores 50% · allows 54%NO scores 41% · allows 61%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 3–4 in 2026, 13–14 in 2025
CARNOsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
CAR2 games · small sample
Scored8.5
Allowed1.5
Pass share41%
61 plays · too few games for a range
NO0 games
None in the last 17.
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
CAR7 games
Scored9.4
Allowed12.6
Pass share51%
46–56% · 192 plays
NO7 games
Scored13.0
Allowed6.4
Pass share49%
38–60% · 224 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
CAR8 games
Scored12.3
Allowed12.0
Pass share58%
47–69% · 270 plays
NO10 games
Scored11.1
Allowed10.2
Pass share65%
60–69% · 327 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 3–4 in 2026, 13–14 in 2025
CARat the half: led 2 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 8 (of 17)
4.0
4.7Q1
6.6
8.1Q2
10.6scored12.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.6
4.6Q3
4.9
6.4Q4
NOat the half: led 0 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 10 (of 17)
2.1
6.4Q1
6.1
7.1Q2
8.1scored13.5allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.5
4.3Q3
6.0
3.9Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.4
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
CARNO
2-15
Record
9-8
13.9
Points for / game
23.6
24.5
Points against / game
19.2
2-6 / 0-9
Home / road
5-3 / 4-5
L L L W L
Last 5
W W L W W
2023 season only (not a rolling window) · 17 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
CARNO
-0.173
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.029
0.003
EPA / play allowed
-0.089
191
Pass yards / game
249
104
Rush yards / game
102
183
Pass yards allowed
222
122
Rush yards allowed
120
0.8 / 0.8
Turnovers / takeaways
0.8 / 1.5
3.8 / 1.6
Sacks allowed / made
2.1 / 2.0
15.4
First downs / game
18.3
50
Penalty yards / game
50
−8.5 · #45 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+0.5 · #23 of 52
2023 season to date · 17 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
CARNO
9-21 · 30%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
5-10 · 33%
Last two seasons (2022–2023), CAR 34 games, NO 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
12CARseriesNO17
Avg total points
46.1
Meetings
29
Division rivals — they meet twice every season. NO have won the last 2.
2025CAR 17 at NO 20NO
2025NO 17 at CAR 7NO
2024NO 22 at CAR 23CAR
2024CAR 10 at NO 47NO
2023CAR 6 at NO 28NO
2023NO 20 at CAR 17NO
2022CAR 10 at NO 7CAR
2022NO 14 at CAR 22CAR
All 29 meetings
2021CAR 10 at NO 18NO
2021NO 7 at CAR 26CAR
2020NO 33 at CAR 7NO
2020CAR 24 at NO 27NO
2019NO 42 at CAR 10NO
2019CAR 31 at NO 34NO
2018CAR 33 at NO 14CAR
2018NO 12 at CAR 9NO
2017CAR 26 at NO 31PlayoffsNO
2017CAR 21 at NO 31NO
2017NO 34 at CAR 13NO
2016NO 20 at CAR 23CAR
2016CAR 38 at NO 41NO
2015CAR 41 at NO 38CAR
2015NO 22 at CAR 27CAR
2014CAR 41 at NO 10CAR
2014NO 28 at CAR 10NO
2013NO 13 at CAR 17CAR
2013CAR 13 at NO 31NO
2012CAR 44 at NO 38CAR
2012NO 27 at CAR 35CAR
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Adam ThielenWR13725.7%
Jonathan MingoWR8515.9%
DJ CharkWR6612.4%
Chuba HubbardRB448.2%
Miles SandersRB417.7%
Terrace Marshall Jr.WR336.2%
Tommy TrembleTE326.0%
Hayden HurstTE326.0%
Stephen SullivanTE244.5%
Laviska Shenault Jr.WR101.9%
Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR101.9%
Ian ThomasTE91.7%
Raheem BlackshearRB71.3%
Mike StrachanWR30.6%
Giovanni RicciTE10.2%
Chris OlaveWR13823.8%
Alvin KamaraRB8614.9%
Rashid ShaheedWR7513.0%
Michael ThomasWR6411.1%
Juwan JohnsonTE5910.2%
Taysom HillTE406.9%
Foster MoreauTE254.3%
Jamaal WilliamsRB203.5%
A.T. PerryWR183.1%
Lynn BowdenWR162.8%
Kendre MillerRB111.9%
Keith KirkwoodWR91.6%
Jimmy GrahamTE71.2%
Tony JonesRB61.0%
Adam PrenticeFB30.5%
Jordan MimsRB20.3%
Carolina Panthers2024–25 seasons
New Orleans Saints2024–25 seasons
