RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Jan 2, 2022
John Hussey
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
10.8
≈ in line with the league average (11.3)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
88.9
≈ in line with the league average (93.6)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
8.6
≈ in line with the league average (9.0)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 510 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playSoFi Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 97 (25th of 32, 100 = league average) · 44.1 points a game in 53 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2023 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2023 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
CLE offensevsLAR defense
CLE offense ranks better in 2 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · LAR defense in 4 (2 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 8 places
−0.18
#29
+0.03
Stronger#21
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.12
#21
−0.06
slight#20
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 12 places
33%
#29
39%
Stronger#17
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
58%
#13Stronger
57%
#19
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
6.6%
#16Stronger
6.2%
#23
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
2.11
#32
0.83
slight#30
LAR offensevsCLE defense
LAR offense ranks better in 3 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · CLE defense in 2 (2 by a clear margin) · 1 even
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.09
#8
−0.20
Stronger#1
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.01
#7slight
−0.12
#9
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
42%
#8
29%
Stronger#1
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 24 places
60%
#8Stronger
73%
#32
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.· even
5.3%
#6
7.7%
#6
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
0.94
#7slight
1.44
#12
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
CLE offenseLAR defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors LAR
−0.18#29
+0.03#21▲
Pass success ratefavors LAR
39%#29
45%#14
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.
7.4%#22▲
9.1%#24
Yards / dropbackfavors LAR
5.6#26
6.3#20
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
8.4
9.0
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
12%
14%
Short throws (≤5 air)
53%
49%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors LAR
−5.1#32▲
−2.4#7▲
YAC / completionfavors LAR
5.1#22
4.9#9▲
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors CLE
6.6%#16
6.2%#23▲
Scramble rate
4.2%
5.0%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors LAR
3.8%#31▲
1.6%#25▼
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 41 · M 15 · R 44
L 39 · M 21 · R 40
LAR offenseCLE defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors CLE
+0.09#8▲
−0.20#1▲
Pass success ratefavors CLE
45%#14
35%#1
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.
10.5%#4
6.9%#5▲
Yards / dropback
6.7#6
5.1#2▲
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
7.9
7.5
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
11%
12%
Short throws (≤5 air)
52%
54%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors CLE
−2.7#26▲
−5.5#1▲
YAC / completionfavors LAR
5.8#4▲
5.7#27
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:CLE scores 59% · allows 49%LAR scores 52% · allows 49%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
CLELARsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
CLE6 games
Scored7.3
Allowed8.2
Pass share48%
41–56% · 151 plays
LAR10 games
Scored14.2
Allowed12.8
Pass share50%
42–58% · 318 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
CLE7 games
Scored7.3
Allowed13.7
Pass share58%
47–69% · 209 plays
LAR3 games
Scored9.0
Allowed13.7
Pass share54%
42–67% · 111 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
CLE4 games
Scored7.3
Allowed11.0
Pass share62%
45–79% · 131 plays
LAR4 games
Scored19.0
Allowed7.5
Pass share64%
53–75% · 135 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
CLEat the half: led 6 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 4 (of 17)
4.2
6.2Q1
6.4
4.6Q2
10.6scored10.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
2.5
5.6Q3
4.8
5.5Q4
LARat the half: led 10 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 4 (of 17)
7.0
4.1Q1
8.5
7.2Q2
15.5scored11.3allowedleague 11.4
1st half
6.1
4.9Q3
7.8
6.3Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
CLELAR
11-7
Record
10-8
22.8
Points for / game
23.7
22.6
Points against / game
22.3
8-1 / 3-6
Home / road
5-3 / 5-5
L L W W W
Last 5
L W W W W
2023 season only (not a rolling window) · 18 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
CLELAR
-0.139
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.055
-0.164
EPA / play allowed
-0.004
240
Pass yards / game
259
115
Rush yards / game
117
191
Pass yards allowed
248
104
Rush yards allowed
105
1.9 / 1.8
Turnovers / takeaways
0.9 / 1.0
2.7 / 2.7
Sacks allowed / made
2.0 / 2.4
17.3
First downs / game
18.6
52
Penalty yards / game
42
−2.8 · #33 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+4.8 · #7 of 52
2023 season to date · 18 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
CLELAR
7-11 · 39%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
4-17 · 19%
Last two seasons (2022–2023), CLE 35 games, LAR 35. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
0CLEseriesLAR3
Avg total points
39.3
Meetings
3
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (3 of the 15 seasons in our history). LAR have won the last 3.
2023CLE 19 at LAR 36LAR
2019LAR 20 at CLE 13LAR
2015CLE 6 at LAR 24LAR
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
David NjokuTE13420.9%
Amari CooperWR13320.8%
Elijah MooreWR10616.6%
Jerome FordRB6710.5%
Cedric TillmanWR446.9%
David BellWR314.8%
Kareem HuntRB274.2%
Harrison BryantTE264.1%
Jordan AkinsTE233.6%
Donovan Peoples-JonesWR182.8%
Marquise GoodwinWR142.2%
Pierre StrongRB81.3%
James ProcheWR50.8%
Nick ChubbRB40.6%
Puka NacuaWR17028.9%
Cooper KuppWR10417.7%
Tyler HigbeeTE7112.1%
Tutu AtwellWR6811.5%
Kyren WilliamsRB498.3%
Demarcus RobinsonWR457.6%
Van JeffersonWR152.5%
Darrell HendersonRB142.4%
Ben SkowronekWR132.2%
Davis AllenTE132.2%
Ronnie RiversRB81.4%
Brycen HopkinsTE71.2%
Austin TrammellWR71.2%
Tyler JohnsonWR30.5%
Royce FreemanRB20.3%
Cleveland Browns2024–25 seasons
Los Angeles Rams2024–25 seasons
