RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Jan 2, 2022
Shawn Smith
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
11.4
≈ in line with the league average (11.3)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
94.4
≈ in line with the league average (93.6)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
8.8
≈ in line with the league average (9.0)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 510 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playNRG Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 100 (15th of 32, 100 = league average) · 45.7 points a game in 91 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2023 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2023 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
DEN offensevsHOU defense
DEN offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups · HOU defense in 5 (4 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.04
#20
+0.01
Stronger#13
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.10
#17
−0.13
Stronger#7
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 16 places
37%
#22
36%
Stronger#6
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
53%
#19
56%
slight#15
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 18 places
8.7%
#27
7.3%
Stronger#9
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.18
#17slight
1.21
#20
HOU offensevsDEN defense
HOU offense ranks better in 4 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · DEN defense in 2 (2 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.07
#12Stronger
+0.07
#26
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.17
#28
−0.06
Stronger#19
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 18 places
38%
#20
34%
Stronger#2
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
55%
#16slight
58%
#21
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
6.6%
#17slight
6.6%
#19
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
0.79
#1Stronger
1.41
#14
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
DEN offenseHOU defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors HOU
−0.04#20▲
+0.01#13▼
Pass success rate
43%#20
45%#16
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.
7.7%#19
8.9%#21▼
Yards / dropback
5.9#21
6.4#23
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
7.4
8.4
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
15%
14%
Short throws (≤5 air)
61%
54%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors DEN
+3.7#4▼
+3.8#28▼
YAC / completionfavors DEN
6.1#2
4.9#10▼
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors HOU
8.7%#27
7.3%#9
Scramble rate
6.5%
5.9%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors DEN
1.8%#7▼
2.5%#15
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 38 · M 18 · R 44
L 37 · M 21 · R 43
HOU offenseDEN defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors HOU
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:DEN scores 40% · allows 47%HOU scores 53% · allows 49%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
DENHOUsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
DEN5 games
Scored12.6
Allowed12.6
Pass share55%
47–64% · 155 plays
HOU10 games
Scored9.8
Allowed12.3
Pass share45%
39–51% · 278 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
DEN6 games
Scored10.7
Allowed8.8
Pass share53%
47–59% · 191 plays
HOU3 games
Scored16.3
Allowed7.3
Pass share56%
48–65% · 94 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
DEN6 games
Scored17.3
Allowed11.5
Pass share63%
53–72% · 206 plays
HOU4 games
Scored11.3
Allowed8.8
Pass share72%
65–78% · 134 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
DENat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 6 · trailed 6 (of 17)
3.7
3.6Q1
5.4
6.1Q2
9.1scored9.7allowedleague 11.4
1st half
4.8
4.9Q3
8.2
5.6Q4
HOUat the half: led 10 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 4 (of 17)
4.8
2.8Q1
7.8
7.2Q2
12.6scored10.0allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.4
5.6Q3
7.9
5.0Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.4
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
DENHOU
8-9
Record
11-8
21.0
Points for / game
22.7
24.3
Points against / game
21.1
5-4 / 3-5
Home / road
7-3 / 4-5
L W L L W
Last 5
L W W W L
2023 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–19 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
DENHOU
-0.044
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.019
0.020
EPA / play allowed
-0.036
210
Pass yards / game
265
106
Rush yards / game
93
253
Pass yards allowed
252
137
Rush yards allowed
101
0.9 / 1.8
Turnovers / takeaways
0.6 / 1.6
3.1 / 2.5
Sacks allowed / made
2.5 / 2.7
15.9
First downs / game
16.9
44
Penalty yards / game
54
+0.2 · #25 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+4.5 · #9 of 52
2023 season to date · 17–19 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
DENHOU
5-12 · 29%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
9-19-1 · 32%
Last two seasons (2022–2023), DEN 34 games, HOU 36. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
5DENseriesHOU3
Avg total points
42.1
Meetings
8
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (8 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2025DEN 18 at HOU 15DEN
2023DEN 17 at HOU 22HOU
2022HOU 9 at DEN 16DEN
2019DEN 38 at HOU 24DEN
2018HOU 19 at DEN 17HOU
2016HOU 9 at DEN 27DEN
2013DEN 37 at HOU 13DEN
2012HOU 31 at DEN 25HOU
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Courtland SuttonWR9018.9%
Jerry JeudyWR8718.2%
Javonte WilliamsRB5812.2%
Samaje PerineRB5611.7%
Jaleel McLaughlinRB367.5%
Adam TrautmanTE357.3%
Marvin Mims Jr.WR336.9%
Brandon JohnsonWR306.3%
Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR194.0%
Lucas KrullTE142.9%
Nate AdkinsTE51.0%
Chris ManhertzTE40.8%
Greg DulcichTE40.8%
Phillip DorsettWR30.6%
Michael BurtonFB30.6%
Nico CollinsWR12620.4%
Dalton SchultzTE9715.7%
Robert WoodsWR8113.1%
Tank DellWR7512.1%
Noah BrownWR569.0%
Devin SingletaryRB477.6%
John Metchie IIIWR335.3%
Brevin JordanTE233.7%
Xavier HutchinsonWR233.7%
Dameon PierceRB172.7%
Andrew BeckFB142.3%
Mike BooneRB91.5%
Dare OgunbowaleRB81.3%
Eric SaubertTE30.5%
Steven SimsWR30.5%
Teagan QuitorianoTE30.5%
C.J. StroudQB10.2%
Denver Broncos2024–25 seasons
Houston Texans2024–25 seasons
