RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Dec 12, 2021
Land Clark
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
12.1
≈ in line with the league average (11.3)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
104.4
≈ in line with the league average (93.6)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
9.6
≈ in line with the league average (9.0)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 542 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playAllegiant Stadium · grassStadium scoring factor 103 (11th of 32, 100 = league average) · 46.8 points a game in 53 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2023 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2023 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
KC offensevsLV defense
KC offense ranks better in 4 of 6 matchups (3 by a clear margin) · LV defense in 2 (1 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.11
#7slight
−0.03
#10
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.13
#23
−0.11
Stronger#11
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 18 places
44%
#6Stronger
42%
#24
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
51%
#20Stronger
63%
#27
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
3.7%
#2Stronger
7.1%
#13
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.43
#23
1.24
slight#18
LV offensevsKC defense
LV offense ranks better in 2 of 6 matchups · KC defense in 4 (4 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 20 places
−0.08
#24
−0.10
Stronger#4
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.13
#24slight
−0.05
#25
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 19 places
36%
#24
36%
Stronger#5
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
49%
#26
51%
Stronger#8
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
6.6%
#19
7.8%
Stronger#4
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.41
#20slight
1.05
#23
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
KC offenseLV defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:KC scores 47% · allows 52%LV scores 44% · allows 47%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
KCLVsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
KC4 games
Scored12.8
Allowed7.5
Pass share43%
31–56% · 127 plays
LV2 games · small sample
Scored10.0
Allowed8.5
Pass share38%
66 plays · too few games for a range
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
KC10 games
Scored11.9
Allowed10.6
Pass share61%
55–67% · 280 plays
LV7 games
Scored12.4
Allowed14.9
Pass share57%
49–64% · 212 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
KC3 games
Scored10.7
Allowed7.7
Pass share57%
48–66% · 114 plays
LV8 games
Scored6.0
Allowed12.5
Pass share63%
56–70% · 189 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
KCat the half: led 4 · within 3 in 10 · trailed 3 (of 17)
4.9
3.9Q1
5.7
6.1Q2
10.6scored10.0allowedleague 11.4
1st half
4.4
3.7Q3
7.0
5.5Q4
LVat the half: led 2 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 8 (of 17)
2.5
4.4Q1
4.8
7.1Q2
7.3scored11.5allowedleague 11.4
1st half
2.8
7.3Q3
6.0
5.3Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
KCLV
15-6
Record
8-9
22.2
Points for / game
19.5
17.0
Points against / game
19.5
7-4 / 8-2
Home / road
6-3 / 2-6
W W W W W
Last 5
W L W W L
2023 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–21 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
KCLV
0.028
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.100
-0.061
EPA / play allowed
-0.061
259
Pass yards / game
216
109
Rush yards / game
91
204
Pass yards allowed
229
113
Rush yards allowed
119
1.3 / 1.4
Turnovers / takeaways
1.2 / 1.6
1.6 / 3.0
Sacks allowed / made
2.4 / 2.7
19.3
First downs / game
15.6
47
Penalty yards / game
37
+5.5 · #4 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−2.0 · #32 of 52
2023 season to date · 17–21 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
KCLV
6-1 · 86%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
5-12 · 29%
Last two seasons (2022–2023), KC 41 games, LV 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
22KCseriesLV7
Avg total points
46.9
Meetings
29
Division rivals — they meet twice every season.
2026KC 30 at LV 27KC
2025KC 12 at LV 14LV
2025LV 0 at KC 31KC
2024LV 17 at KC 19KC
2024KC 27 at LV 20KC
2023LV 20 at KC 14LV
2023KC 31 at LV 17KC
2022KC 31 at LV 13KC
All 29 meetings
2022LV 29 at KC 30KC
2021LV 9 at KC 48KC
2021KC 41 at LV 14KC
2020KC 35 at LV 31KC
2020LV 40 at KC 32LV
2019LV 9 at KC 40KC
2019KC 28 at LV 10KC
2018LV 3 at KC 35KC
2018KC 40 at LV 33KC
2017LV 15 at KC 26KC
2017KC 30 at LV 31LV
2016LV 13 at KC 21KC
2016KC 26 at LV 10KC
2015LV 17 at KC 23KC
2015KC 34 at LV 20KC
2014LV 13 at KC 31KC
2014KC 20 at LV 24LV
2013KC 56 at LV 31KC
2013LV 7 at KC 24KC
2012KC 0 at LV 15LV
2012LV 26 at KC 16LV
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Travis KelceTE15821.6%
Rashee RiceWR13518.5%
Justin WatsonWR638.6%
Isiah PachecoRB618.3%
Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR557.5%
Noah GrayTE527.1%
Skyy MooreWR385.2%
Kadarius ToneyWR385.2%
Jerick McKinnonRB344.7%
Mecole HardmanWR283.8%
Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB263.6%
Richie JamesWR182.5%
Justyn RossWR111.5%
Blake BellTE91.2%
La'Mical PerineRB50.7%
Davante AdamsWR17533.0%
Jakobi MeyersWR10620.0%
Josh JacobsRB5410.2%
Michael MayerTE407.5%
Hunter RenfrowWR377.0%
Tre TuckerWR346.4%
Austin HooperTE315.8%
Ameer AbdullahRB244.5%
Zamir WhiteRB193.6%
DeAndre CarterWR71.3%
Jakob JohnsonRB20.4%
Cole FotheringhamTE10.2%
Jesper HorstedTE10.2%
Kansas City Chiefs2024–25 seasons
Las Vegas Raiders2024–25 seasons
