RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Dec 21, 2021
Shawn Hochuli
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
11.5
≈ in line with the league average (11.2)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
100.2
≈ in line with the league average (92.7)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
9.0
≈ in line with the league average (8.9)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 484 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playAllegiant Stadium · grassStadium scoring factor 103 (11th of 32, 100 = league average) · 46.8 points a game in 53 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2023 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2023 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
NYJ offensevsLV defense
NYJ offense ranks better in 0 of 6 matchups · LV defense in 6 (5 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 22 places
−0.29
#32
−0.03
Stronger#10
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.18
#29
−0.11
Stronger#11
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
26%
#32
42%
Stronger#24
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
32%
#32
63%
slight#27
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
9.2%
#29
7.1%
Stronger#13
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.71
#28
1.24
Stronger#18
LV offensevsNYJ defense
LV offense ranks better in 0 of 6 matchups · NYJ defense in 6 (6 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 21 places
−0.08
#24
−0.12
Stronger#3
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.13
#24
−0.12
Stronger#8
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
36%
#24
38%
Stronger#13
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 19 places
49%
#26
49%
Stronger#7
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
6.6%
#19
8.0%
Stronger#2
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.41
#20
1.53
Stronger#6
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
NYJ offenseLV defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors LV
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:NYJ scores 41% · allows 56%LV scores 44% · allows 47%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
NYJLVsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
NYJ2 games · small sample
Scored8.0
Allowed13.5
Pass share50%
48 plays · too few games for a range
LV2 games · small sample
Scored10.0
Allowed8.5
Pass share38%
66 plays · too few games for a range
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
NYJ5 games
Scored11.4
Allowed14.8
Pass share55%
42–68% · 157 plays
LV7 games
Scored12.4
Allowed14.9
Pass share57%
49–64% · 212 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
NYJ10 games
Scored9.7
Allowed10.5
Pass share61%
52–69% · 305 plays
LV8 games
Scored6.0
Allowed12.5
Pass share63%
56–70% · 189 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
NYJat the half: led 2 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 10 (of 17)
3.2
6.4Q1
3.6
9.0Q2
6.8scored15.4allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.4
5.9Q3
6.6
6.1Q4
LVat the half: led 2 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 8 (of 17)
2.5
4.4Q1
4.8
7.1Q2
7.3scored11.5allowedleague 11.4
1st half
2.8
7.3Q3
6.0
5.3Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
NYJLV
7-10
Record
8-9
15.8
Points for / game
19.5
20.9
Points against / game
19.5
4-5 / 3-5
Home / road
6-3 / 2-6
W L W L W
Last 5
W L W W L
2023 season only (not a rolling window) · 17 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
NYJLV
-0.244
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.100
-0.123
EPA / play allowed
-0.061
198
Pass yards / game
216
97
Rush yards / game
91
187
Pass yards allowed
229
124
Rush yards allowed
119
1.4 / 1.8
Turnovers / takeaways
1.2 / 1.6
3.8 / 2.7
Sacks allowed / made
2.4 / 2.7
13.7
First downs / game
15.6
56
Penalty yards / game
37
−9.8 · #49 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−2.0 · #32 of 52
2023 season to date · 17 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
NYJLV
10-16 · 38%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
5-12 · 29%
Last two seasons (2022–2023), NYJ 34 games, LV 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
3NYJseriesLV4
Avg total points
48.6
Meetings
7
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (7 of the 15 seasons in our history). LV have won the last 2.
2023NYJ 12 at LV 16LV
2020LV 31 at NYJ 28LV
2019LV 3 at NYJ 34NYJ
2017NYJ 20 at LV 45LV
2015NYJ 20 at LV 34LV
2014LV 14 at NYJ 19NYJ
2013LV 27 at NYJ 37NYJ
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Garrett WilsonWR16829.9%
Breece HallRB9516.9%
Tyler ConklinTE8715.5%
Allen LazardWR498.7%
Xavier GipsonWR386.8%
Jeremy RuckertTE223.9%
Michael CarterRB203.6%
Dalvin CookRB203.6%
Randall CobbWR173.0%
C.J. UzomahTE122.1%
Israel AbanikandaRB112.0%
Jason BrownleeWR81.4%
Kenny YeboahTE40.7%
Malik TaylorWR40.7%
Nick BawdenRB30.5%
Mecole HardmanWR30.5%
Irvin CharlesWR10.2%
Davante AdamsWR17533.0%
Jakobi MeyersWR10620.0%
Josh JacobsRB5410.2%
Michael MayerTE407.5%
Hunter RenfrowWR377.0%
Tre TuckerWR346.4%
Austin HooperTE315.8%
Ameer AbdullahRB244.5%
Zamir WhiteRB193.6%
DeAndre CarterWR71.3%
Jakob JohnsonRB20.4%
Cole FotheringhamTE10.2%
Jesper HorstedTE10.2%
New York Jets2024–25 seasons
Las Vegas Raiders2024–25 seasons
