RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Dec 12, 2021
Adrian Hill
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
11.0
≈ in line with the league average (11.3)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
89.2
≈ in line with the league average (93.1)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
8.9
≈ in line with the league average (8.9)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 511 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playU.S. Bank Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 98 (21th of 32, 100 = league average) · 44.8 points a game in 85 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2023 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2023 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
NO offensevsMIN defense
NO offense ranks better in 4 of 6 matchups (3 by a clear margin) · MIN defense in 1 · 1 even
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.· even
+0.03
#14
+0.01
#14
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.09
#15slight
−0.07
#17
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
39%
#15Stronger
42%
#25
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
54%
#17
54%
slight#14
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
5.4%
#7Stronger
6.4%
#20
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
0.94
#4Stronger
1.24
#19
MIN offensevsNO defense
MIN offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · NO defense in 5 (5 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.00
#18
−0.07
Stronger#5
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 19 places
−0.13
#22
−0.15
Stronger#3
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
38%
#19
35%
Stronger#4
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 20 places
47%
#29
51%
Stronger#9
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
6.6%
#20Stronger
5.4%
#29
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 30 places
1.94
#31
1.71
Stronger#1
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
NO offenseMIN defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
+0.03#14▲
+0.01#14▲
Pass success ratefavors MIN
45%#18
44%#11▲
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.
8.0%#16▲
7.6%#12
Yards / dropback
6.2#17
6.2#13▲
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
8.3
7.3
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
13%
14%
Short throws (≤5 air)
54%
57%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors NO
+1.9#11▲
+3.6#27
YAC / completionfavors MIN
4.4#31
5.4#23
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors NO
5.4%#7
6.4%#20▼
Scramble rate
1.8%
4.0%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors NO
1.8%#9▼
1.8%#22▼
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 34 · M 19 · R 47
L 41 · M 18 · R 41
MIN offenseNO defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors NO
+0.00#18▼
−0.07#5▲
Pass success ratefavors NO
43%#21
41%#6▲
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors MIN
10.6%#3▲
8.5%#17▲
Yards / dropback
6.4#12
6.1#12▲
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
7.8
8.4
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
11%
13%
Short throws (≤5 air)
50%
49%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.
+3.0#7▼
−4.7#2▲
YAC / completion
4.5#30
5.6#26▲
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors MIN
6.6%#20▲
5.4%#29▼
Scramble rate
4.7%
6.5%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors NO
3.0%#27▲
3.2%#6
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 37 · M 21 · R 41
L 38 · M 17 · R 46
New Orleans Saints · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
2023 season
Chris Olave · 138 (23.8%)Alvin Kamara · 86 (14.9%)Rashid Shaheed · 75 (13.0%)Michael Thomas · 64 (11.1%)Juwan Johnson · 59 (10.2%)Taysom Hill · 40 (6.9%)Foster Moreau · 25 (4.3%)Jamaal Williams · 20 (3.5%)A.T. Perry · 18 (3.1%)Lynn Bowden · 16 (2.8%)Kendre Miller · 11 (1.9%)Keith Kirkwood · 9 (1.6%)Jimmy Graham · 7 (1.2%)Tony Jones · 6 (1.0%)Adam Prentice · 3 (0.5%)Jordan Mims · 2 (0.3%)
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:NO scores 39% · allows 61%MIN scores 48% · allows 55%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
NOMINsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
NO0 games
None in the last 17.
MIN4 games
Scored8.0
Allowed4.8
Pass share51%
43–60% · 113 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
NO7 games
Scored13.0
Allowed6.4
Pass share49%
38–60% · 224 plays
MIN7 games
Scored10.3
Allowed7.1
Pass share49%
36–62% · 191 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
NO10 games
Scored11.9
Allowed10.6
Pass share66%
61–70% · 337 plays
MIN6 games
Scored11.0
Allowed11.3
Pass share60%
52–68% · 139 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
NOat the half: led 0 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 10 (of 17)
2.0
6.4Q1
5.9
7.6Q2
7.9scored14.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.4
4.3Q3
6.6
4.2Q4
MINat the half: led 4 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 6 (of 17)
4.9
3.8Q1
4.4
6.1Q2
9.3scored9.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.9
4.2Q3
6.1
3.9Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
NOMIN
9-8
Record
7-10
23.6
Points for / game
20.2
19.2
Points against / game
21.3
5-3 / 4-5
Home / road
2-6 / 5-4
W W L W W
Last 5
L L L L W
2023 season only (not a rolling window) · 17 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
NOMIN
-0.029
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.024
-0.089
EPA / play allowed
-0.021
249
Pass yards / game
276
102
Rush yards / game
91
222
Pass yards allowed
252
120
Rush yards allowed
99
0.8 / 1.5
Turnovers / takeaways
1.5 / 1.9
2.1 / 2.0
Sacks allowed / made
2.8 / 2.5
18.3
First downs / game
17.6
50
Penalty yards / game
39
+0.5 · #23 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−5.1 · #41 of 52
2023 season to date · 17 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
NOMIN
5-10 · 33%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
4-10 · 29%
Last two seasons (2022–2023), NO 34 games, MIN 35. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
3NOseriesMIN5
Avg total points
51.3
Meetings
8
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (7 of the 15 seasons in our history). MIN have won the last 2.
2023NO 19 at MIN 27MIN
2022MIN 28 vs NO 25MIN
2020MIN 33 at NO 52NO
2019MIN 26 at NO 20PlayoffsMIN
2018NO 30 at MIN 20NO
2017NO 24 at MIN 29PlayoffsMIN
2017NO 19 at MIN 29MIN
2014MIN 9 at NO 20NO
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Chris OlaveWR13823.8%
Alvin KamaraRB8614.9%
Rashid ShaheedWR7513.0%
Michael ThomasWR6411.1%
Juwan JohnsonTE5910.2%
Taysom HillTE406.9%
Foster MoreauTE254.3%
Jamaal WilliamsRB203.5%
A.T. PerryWR183.1%
Lynn BowdenWR162.8%
Kendre MillerRB111.9%
Keith KirkwoodWR91.6%
Jimmy GrahamTE71.2%
Tony JonesRB61.0%
Adam PrenticeFB30.5%
Jordan MimsRB20.3%
T.J. HockensonTE12721.0%
Jordan AddisonWR10817.8%
Justin JeffersonWR10016.5%
K.J. OsbornWR7512.4%
Brandon PowellWR447.3%
Alexander MattisonRB447.3%
Josh OliverTE284.6%
Ty ChandlerRB254.1%
Johnny MundtTE233.8%
Cam AkersRB122.0%
C.J. HamFB91.5%
Jalen NailorWR61.0%
Trishton JacksonWR40.7%
Nick MuseTE10.2%
New Orleans Saints2024–25 seasons
Minnesota Vikings2024–25 seasons
