RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 22 games since Sep 11, 2022
Tra Blake
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
12.7
≈ in line with the league average (11.5)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
107.8
≈ in line with the league average (94.7)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
9.9
≈ in line with the league average (9.1)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 390 league games, 22 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playState Farm Stadium · grassStadium scoring factor 104 (8th of 32, 100 = league average) · 47.3 points a game in 82 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2023 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2023 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
BAL offensevsARI defense
BAL offense ranks better in 6 of 6 matchups (5 by a clear margin) · ARI defense in 0
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 21 places
+0.09
#10Stronger
+0.17
#31
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 25 places
+0.03
#3Stronger
−0.02
#28
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
41%
#11Stronger
47%
#32
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
63%
#6Stronger
61%
#23
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
7.0%
#23slight
5.8%
#26
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.16
#16Stronger
0.88
#29
ARI offensevsBAL defense
ARI offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · BAL defense in 5 (2 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 25 places
−0.11
#27
−0.16
Stronger#2
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.01
#6Stronger
−0.10
#14
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
39%
#14
37%
slight#9
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
63%
#7
43%
slight#2
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
6.7%
#21
7.7%
Stronger#7
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.00
#11
1.47
slight#9
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
BAL offenseARI defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors BAL
+0.09#10▼
+0.17#31
Pass success ratefavors BAL
48%#6
50%#32
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors BAL
8.6%#12▼
9.0%#23▲
Yards / dropbackfavors BAL
6.7#7
6.8#29
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
8.3
8.2
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
12%
12%
Short throws (≤5 air)
48%
49%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors BAL
+2.5#9▼
+4.8#31▼
YAC / completionfavors ARI
5.5#8
4.4#1
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
7.0%#23▲
5.8%#26▼
Scramble rate
12.2%
6.0%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors BAL
1.4%#3
2.2%#18
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 36 · M 24 · R 40
L 41 · M 18 · R 41
ARI offenseBAL defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors BAL
−0.11#27▲
−0.16#2▲
Pass success ratefavors BAL
41%#26
40%#4
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors BAL
6.8%#27▲
6.4%#2
Yards / dropbackfavors BAL
5.5#27▲
4.9#1
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
7.6
7.5
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
11%
11%
Short throws (≤5 air)
55%
51%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors BAL
−2.5#25▲
−2.1#8▲
YAC / completionfavors BAL
4.7#27▲
4.7#3
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors BAL
6.7%#21▼
7.7%#7▼
Scramble rate
5.2%
5.3%
Interception rate / Interceptions forced
2.2%#15▼
2.6%#14▼
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 39 · M 24 · R 37
L 39 · M 20 · R 40
Baltimore Ravens · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:BAL scores 53% · allows 46%ARI scores 51% · allows 50%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
BALARIsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
BAL9 games
Scored11.3
Allowed11.1
Pass share35%
27–43% · 237 plays
ARI5 games
Scored8.6
Allowed14.2
Pass share54%
43–65% · 152 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
BAL3 games
Scored10.7
Allowed13.7
Pass share47%
32–62% · 94 plays
ARI3 games
Scored3.3
Allowed17.0
Pass share67%
64–69% · 66 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
BAL5 games
Scored12.0
Allowed10.6
Pass share47%
41–53% · 157 plays
ARI9 games
Scored13.7
Allowed15.7
Pass share73%
67–78% · 308 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
BALat the half: led 9 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 5 (of 17)
5.0
3.9Q1
7.6
5.9Q2
12.6scored9.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.0
5.4Q3
6.4
6.1Q4
ARIat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 9 (of 17)
5.2
7.6Q1
5.6
8.1Q2
10.8scored15.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
4.9
7.0Q3
5.4
8.3Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
BALARI
14-5
Record
4-13
27.7
Points for / game
19.4
16.2
Points against / game
26.8
7-4 / 7-1
Home / road
2-6 / 2-7
L W L W W
Last 5
L W L L W
2023 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–19 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
BALARI
0.068
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.077
-0.138
EPA / play allowed
0.079
227
Pass yards / game
202
156
Rush yards / game
139
218
Pass yards allowed
226
105
Rush yards allowed
143
0.9 / 1.9
Turnovers / takeaways
0.8 / 1.0
2.5 / 3.2
Sacks allowed / made
2.5 / 1.9
19.1
First downs / game
17.6
56
Penalty yards / game
51
+4.6 · #8 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−5.1 · #41 of 52
2023 season to date · 17–19 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
BALARI
4-5 · 44%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
7-24 · 23%
Last two seasons (2022–2023), BAL 37 games, ARI 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
2BALseriesARI1
Avg total points
46.3
Meetings
3
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (3 of the 15 seasons in our history). BAL have won the last 2.
2023BAL 31 at ARI 24BAL
2019ARI 17 at BAL 23BAL
2015BAL 18 at ARI 26ARI
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Zay FlowersWR12122.8%
Odell Beckham Jr.WR7113.4%
Mark AndrewsTE6311.9%
Rashod BatemanWR6211.7%
Nelson AgholorWR529.8%
Justice HillRB489.0%
Isaiah LikelyTE468.7%
Gus EdwardsRB163.0%
Keaton MitchellRB112.1%
Charlie KolarTE101.9%
Devin DuvernayWR91.7%
Patrick RicardRB71.3%
J.K. DobbinsRB30.6%
Laquon TreadwellWR30.6%
Kenyan DrakeRB30.6%
Melvin GordonRB30.6%
Tylan WallaceWR20.4%
Lamar JacksonQB10.2%
Trey McBrideTE10619.6%
Marquise BrownWR10118.7%
Rondale MooreWR6211.5%
Michael WilsonWR5810.7%
Zach ErtzTE438.0%
Greg DortchWR417.6%
James ConnerRB336.1%
Emari DemercadoRB305.6%
Elijah HigginsTE193.5%
Zach PascalWR152.8%
Geoff SwaimTE112.0%
Michael CarterRB112.0%
Tony JonesRB40.7%
Keaontay IngramRB40.7%
Damien WilliamsRB20.4%
Baltimore Ravens2024–25 seasons
Arizona Cardinals2024–25 seasons
