RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Nov 25, 2021
Adrian Hill
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
11.3
≈ in line with the league average (11.2)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
93.0
≈ in line with the league average (93.1)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
9.3
≈ in line with the league average (8.9)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 511 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playAT&T Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 116 (2nd of 32, 100 = league average) · 52.7 points a game in 87 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2023 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2023 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
LAR offensevsDAL defense
LAR offense ranks better in 5 of 6 matchups (3 by a clear margin) · DAL defense in 0 · 1 even
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.· even
+0.09
#8
−0.06
#8
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.01
#7slight
−0.11
#12
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
42%
#8Stronger
38%
#15
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
60%
#8Stronger
60%
#22
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
5.3%
#6slight
7.6%
#8
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
0.94
#7Stronger
1.44
#13
DAL offensevsLAR defense
DAL offense ranks better in 6 of 6 matchups (6 by a clear margin) · LAR defense in 0
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 18 places
+0.17
#3Stronger
+0.03
#21
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.03
#10Stronger
−0.06
#20
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 16 places
50%
#1Stronger
39%
#17
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
58%
#12Stronger
57%
#19
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
5.9%
#10Stronger
6.2%
#23
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 24 places
0.94
#6Stronger
0.83
#30
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
LAR offenseDAL defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
+0.09#8▲
−0.06#8▲
Pass success rate
45%#14
44%#9
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors LAR
10.5%#4
8.7%#19▲
Yards / dropback
6.7#6
6.1#10▲
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
7.9
7.7
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
11%
11%
Short throws (≤5 air)
52%
49%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors DAL
−2.7#26▲
−4.1#4▲
YAC / completionfavors LAR
5.8#4▲
5.8#28
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
5.3%#6▲
7.6%#8
Scramble rate
3.1%
6.1%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors DAL
2.1%#14▲
3.2%#4▲
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 40 · M 21 · R 39
L 39 · M 17 · R 44
DAL offenseLAR defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors DAL
+0.17#3
+0.03#21▲
Pass success ratefavors DAL
51%#2
45%#14
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors DAL
9.1%#11▼
9.1%#24
Yards / dropbackfavors DAL
6.7#9
6.3#20
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
7.9
9.0
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
12%
14%
Short throws (≤5 air)
52%
49%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.
+4.0#3▲
−2.4#7▲
YAC / completionfavors LAR
4.7#28
4.9#9▲
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors DAL
5.9%#10
6.2%#23▲
Scramble rate
4.4%
5.0%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors DAL
1.8%#8▲
1.6%#25▼
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 36 · M 18 · R 45
L 39 · M 21 · R 40
Los Angeles Rams · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:LAR scores 52% · allows 49%DAL scores 53% · allows 53%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
LARDALsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
LAR10 games
Scored14.2
Allowed12.8
Pass share50%
42–58% · 318 plays
DAL6 games
Scored12.7
Allowed12.2
Pass share47%
40–53% · 172 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
LAR3 games
Scored9.0
Allowed13.7
Pass share54%
42–67% · 111 plays
DAL2 games · small sample
Scored11.5
Allowed15.5
Pass share58%
64 plays · too few games for a range
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
LAR4 games
Scored19.0
Allowed7.5
Pass share64%
53–75% · 135 plays
DAL9 games
Scored14.2
Allowed14.1
Pass share62%
57–67% · 288 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
LARat the half: led 10 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 4 (of 17)
7.0
4.1Q1
8.5
7.2Q2
15.5scored11.3allowedleague 11.4
1st half
6.1
4.9Q3
7.8
6.3Q4
DALat the half: led 6 · within 3 in 2 · trailed 9 (of 17)
5.8
7.2Q1
9.0
8.1Q2
14.8scored15.3allowedleague 11.4
1st half
7.0
5.2Q3
6.4
8.4Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
LARDAL
10-8
Record
12-6
23.7
Points for / game
30.1
22.3
Points against / game
20.2
5-3 / 5-5
Home / road
8-1 / 4-5
L W W W W
Last 5
L W W L L
2023 season only (not a rolling window) · 18 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
LARDAL
0.055
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.096
-0.004
EPA / play allowed
-0.075
259
Pass yards / game
281
117
Rush yards / game
114
248
Pass yards allowed
209
105
Rush yards allowed
114
0.9 / 1.0
Turnovers / takeaways
0.9 / 1.7
2.0 / 2.4
Sacks allowed / made
2.4 / 2.5
18.6
First downs / game
20.8
42
Penalty yards / game
56
+4.8 · #7 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+7.6 · #3 of 52
2023 season to date · 18 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
LARDAL
4-17 · 19%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
3-7 · 30%
Last two seasons (2022–2023), LAR 35 games, DAL 37. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
3LARseriesDAL5
Avg total points
52.1
Meetings
8
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (8 of the 15 seasons in our history). DAL have won the last 2.
2023LAR 20 at DAL 43DAL
2022DAL 22 at LAR 10DAL
2020DAL 17 at LAR 20LAR
2019LAR 21 at DAL 44DAL
2018DAL 22 at LAR 30PlayoffsLAR
2017LAR 35 at DAL 30LAR
2014DAL 34 at LAR 31DAL
2013LAR 7 at DAL 31DAL
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Puka NacuaWR17028.9%
Cooper KuppWR10417.7%
Tyler HigbeeTE7112.1%
Tutu AtwellWR6811.5%
Kyren WilliamsRB498.3%
Demarcus RobinsonWR457.6%
Van JeffersonWR152.5%
Darrell HendersonRB142.4%
Ben SkowronekWR132.2%
Davis AllenTE132.2%
Ronnie RiversRB81.4%
Brycen HopkinsTE71.2%
Austin TrammellWR71.2%
Tyler JohnsonWR30.5%
Royce FreemanRB20.3%
CeeDee LambWR19829.9%
Jake FergusonTE11417.2%
Brandin CooksWR8913.4%
Tony PollardRB7611.5%
Michael GallupWR639.5%
Jalen TolbertWR385.7%
Rico DowdleRB253.8%
KaVontae TurpinWR182.7%
Luke SchoonmakerTE162.4%
Deuce VaughnRB71.1%
Peyton HendershotTE71.1%
Jalen BrooksWR60.9%
Hunter LuepkeRB40.6%
Sean McKeonTE20.3%
Los Angeles Rams2024–25 seasons
Dallas Cowboys2024–25 seasons
