RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Nov 21, 2021
Clete Blakeman
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
11.4
≈ in line with the league average (11.2)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
88.2
≈ in line with the league average (92.5)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
8.9
≈ in line with the league average (8.8)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 497 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playMercedes-Benz Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 102 (12th of 32, 100 = league average) · 46.6 points a game in 74 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2023 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2023 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
WSH offensevsATL defense
WSH offense ranks better in 0 of 6 matchups · ATL defense in 6 (4 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.10
#26
+0.03
Stronger#19
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 18 places
−0.12
#19
−0.18
Stronger#1
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 23 places
35%
#26
35%
Stronger#3
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
63%
#5
46%
slight#4
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
8.8%
#28
6.8%
Stronger#18
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.76
#30
0.94
slight#27
ATL offensevsWSH defense
ATL offense ranks better in 3 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · WSH defense in 3 (2 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.05
#22Stronger
+0.18
#32
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.16
#27
−0.06
Stronger#21
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 13 places
40%
#13Stronger
42%
#26
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
47%
#30
57%
Stronger#18
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
6.7%
#22slight
5.9%
#25
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.65
#26
1.00
slight#25
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
WSH offenseATL defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors ATL
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:WSH scores 48% · allows 50%ATL scores 58% · allows 46%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
WSHATLsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
WSH2 games · small sample
Scored11.5
Allowed17.5
Pass share39%
56 plays · too few games for a range
ATL6 games
Scored10.3
Allowed13.0
Pass share37%
25–49% · 143 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
WSH5 games
Scored9.2
Allowed12.6
Pass share44%
32–56% · 134 plays
ATL5 games
Scored12.4
Allowed13.2
Pass share53%
42–65% · 167 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
WSH10 games
Scored10.5
Allowed14.2
Pass share55%
48–62% · 300 plays
ATL6 games
Scored5.3
Allowed12.7
Pass share58%
47–68% · 177 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
WSHat the half: led 2 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 10 (of 17)
2.3
5.4Q1
7.3
8.9Q2
9.6scored14.2allowedleague 11.4
1st half
4.4
7.2Q3
5.5
6.4Q4
ATLat the half: led 6 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 6 (of 17)
5.1
5.1Q1
7.7
5.9Q2
12.8scored11.0allowedleague 11.4
1st half
2.9
5.4Q3
6.3
7.1Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
WSHATL
4-13
Record
7-10
19.4
Points for / game
18.9
30.5
Points against / game
21.9
1-7 / 3-6
Home / road
5-3 / 2-7
L L L L L
Last 5
L L W L L
2023 season only (not a rolling window) · 17 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
WSHATL
-0.091
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.098
0.084
EPA / play allowed
-0.064
246
Pass yards / game
222
94
Rush yards / game
127
272
Pass yards allowed
218
127
Rush yards allowed
118
1.7 / 1.1
Turnovers / takeaways
1.4 / 1.6
3.8 / 2.2
Sacks allowed / made
2.4 / 2.5
17.0
First downs / game
17.8
41
Penalty yards / game
44
−4.6 · #40 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−3.6 · #37 of 52
2023 season to date · 17 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
WSHATL
7-15 · 32%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
5-13 · 28%
Last two seasons (2022–2023), WSH 34 games, ATL 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
4WSHseriesATL5
Avg total points
49.0
Meetings
9
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (9 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2025WSH 27 at ATL 34ATL
2024ATL 24 at WSH 30WSH
2023WSH 24 at ATL 16WSH
2022ATL 13 at WSH 19WSH
2021WSH 34 at ATL 30WSH
2018ATL 38 at WSH 14ATL
2015WSH 19 at ATL 25ATL
2013WSH 26 at ATL 27ATL
All 9 meetings
2012ATL 24 at WSH 17ATL
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Terry McLaurinWR13222.0%
Curtis SamuelWR9115.1%
Jahan DotsonWR8313.8%
Logan ThomasTE7813.0%
Antonio GibsonRB599.8%
Brian RobinsonRB437.2%
John BatesTE284.7%
Dyami BrownWR233.8%
Byron PringleWR223.7%
Jamison CrowderWR203.3%
Cole TurnerTE152.5%
Alex ArmahRB30.5%
Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB20.3%
Sam HowellQB10.2%
Jonathan WilliamsRB10.2%
Drake LondonWR11021.7%
Kyle PittsTE9017.7%
Bijan RobinsonRB8616.9%
Jonnu SmithTE7013.8%
Mack HollinsWR305.9%
Van JeffersonWR285.5%
Tyler AllgeierRB234.5%
KhaDarel HodgeWR234.5%
Scott MillerWR163.1%
Cordarrelle PattersonRB122.4%
MyCole PruittTE122.4%
Keith SmithFB30.6%
Damiere ByrdWR20.4%
John FitzPatrickTE10.2%
Desmond RidderQB10.2%
Tucker FiskTE10.2%
Washington Commanders2024–25 seasons
Atlanta Falcons2024–25 seasons
