RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Nov 7, 2021
Clay Martin
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
11.4
≈ in line with the league average (11.3)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
97.6
≈ in line with the league average (93.7)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
9.3
≈ in line with the league average (9.0)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 511 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playState Farm Stadium · grassStadium scoring factor 104 (8th of 32, 100 = league average) · 47.3 points a game in 82 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2023 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2023 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
CIN offensevsARI defense
CIN offense ranks better in 6 of 6 matchups (5 by a clear margin) · ARI defense in 0
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 16 places
+0.03
#15Stronger
+0.17
#31
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.09
#16Stronger
−0.02
#28
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
38%
#18Stronger
47%
#32
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
60%
#10Stronger
61%
#23
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
7.2%
#24slight
5.8%
#26
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 26 places
0.94
#3Stronger
0.88
#29
ARI offensevsCIN defense
ARI offense ranks better in 3 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · CIN defense in 2 · 1 even
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.11
#27
+0.07
slight#25
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 21 places
−0.01
#6Stronger
−0.03
#27
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
39%
#14Stronger
41%
#23
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
63%
#7slight
52%
#10
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
6.7%
#21
6.8%
slight#17
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.· even
1.00
#11
1.47
#11
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
CIN offenseARI defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors CIN
+0.03#15▼
+0.17#31
Pass success ratefavors CIN
47%#8
50%#32
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.
6.9%#26
9.0%#23▲
Yards / dropbackfavors CIN
5.9#20
6.8#29
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
6.3
8.2
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
9%
12%
Short throws (≤5 air)
56%
49%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors CIN
+2.1#10▼
+4.8#31▼
YAC / completion
5.6#5
4.4#1
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
7.2%#24▲
5.8%#26▼
Scramble rate
4.3%
6.0%
Interception rate / Interceptions forced
2.3%#19▲
2.2%#18
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 41 · M 17 · R 42
L 41 · M 18 · R 41
ARI offenseCIN defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
−0.11#27▲
+0.07#25▼
Pass success rate
41%#26
48%#29
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.
6.8%#27▲
10.1%#31
Yards / dropback
5.5#27▲
7.0#31
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
7.6
9.1
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
11%
15%
Short throws (≤5 air)
55%
49%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.
−2.5#25▲
+4.4#30▼
YAC / completion
4.7#27▲
5.5#24▲
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:CIN scores 49% · allows 44%ARI scores 51% · allows 50%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
CINARIsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
CIN7 games
Scored14.1
Allowed15.6
Pass share53%
46–60% · 217 plays
ARI5 games
Scored8.6
Allowed14.2
Pass share54%
43–65% · 152 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
CIN4 games
Scored16.5
Allowed14.0
Pass share67%
52–82% · 120 plays
ARI3 games
Scored3.3
Allowed17.0
Pass share67%
64–69% · 66 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
CIN6 games
Scored11.0
Allowed15.3
Pass share72%
65–78% · 209 plays
ARI9 games
Scored13.7
Allowed15.7
Pass share73%
67–78% · 308 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
CINat the half: led 7 · within 3 in 4 · trailed 6 (of 17)
5.1
4.6Q1
7.8
7.2Q2
12.9scored11.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
6.5
5.9Q3
7.1
9.2Q4
ARIat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 9 (of 17)
5.2
7.6Q1
5.6
8.1Q2
10.8scored15.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
4.9
7.0Q3
5.4
8.3Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
CINARI
9-8
Record
4-13
21.5
Points for / game
19.4
22.6
Points against / game
26.8
6-3 / 3-5
Home / road
2-6 / 2-7
W L L W W
Last 5
L W L L W
2023 season only (not a rolling window) · 17 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
CINARI
-0.011
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.077
0.030
EPA / play allowed
0.079
250
Pass yards / game
202
90
Rush yards / game
139
264
Pass yards allowed
226
126
Rush yards allowed
143
0.9 / 1.6
Turnovers / takeaways
0.8 / 1.0
2.9 / 2.6
Sacks allowed / made
2.5 / 1.9
17.5
First downs / game
17.6
36
Penalty yards / game
51
+0.3 · #24 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−5.1 · #41 of 52
2023 season to date · 17 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
CINARI
4-5 · 44%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
7-24 · 23%
Last two seasons (2022–2023), CIN 36 games, ARI 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
2CINseriesARI2
Avg total points
54.8
Meetings
4
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (4 of the 15 seasons in our history). CIN have won the last 2.
2025ARI 14 at CIN 37CIN
2023CIN 34 at ARI 20CIN
2019ARI 26 at CIN 23ARI
2015CIN 31 at ARI 34ARI
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Ja'Marr ChaseWR14524.5%
Tyler BoydWR9816.6%
Tee HigginsWR7612.8%
Joe MixonRB6410.8%
Tanner HudsonTE508.4%
Trenton IrwinWR325.4%
Drew SampleTE274.6%
Irv SmithTE264.4%
Andrei IosivasWR254.2%
Chase BrownRB152.5%
Mitchell WilcoxTE122.0%
Charlie JonesWR91.5%
Trayveon WilliamsRB91.5%
Kwamie Lassiter IIWR10.2%
Jake BrowningQB10.2%
Shedrick JacksonWR10.2%
Chris EvansRB10.2%
Trey McBrideTE10619.6%
Marquise BrownWR10118.7%
Rondale MooreWR6211.5%
Michael WilsonWR5810.7%
Zach ErtzTE438.0%
Greg DortchWR417.6%
James ConnerRB336.1%
Emari DemercadoRB305.6%
Elijah HigginsTE193.5%
Zach PascalWR152.8%
Geoff SwaimTE112.0%
Michael CarterRB112.0%
Tony JonesRB40.7%
Keaontay IngramRB40.7%
Damien WilliamsRB20.4%
Cincinnati Bengals2024–25 seasons
Arizona Cardinals2024–25 seasons
