RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Nov 7, 2021
Adrian Hill
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
11.3
≈ in line with the league average (11.3)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
94.9
≈ in line with the league average (93.7)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
9.2
≈ in line with the league average (9.0)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 511 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playFord Field · TurfStadium scoring factor 116 (1st of 32, 100 = league average) · 52.7 points a game in 87 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2023 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2023 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
CAR offensevsDET defense
CAR offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · DET defense in 5 (3 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.20
#30
+0.08
slight#29
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.14
#25
−0.14
Stronger#6
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
34%
#27
37%
Stronger#11
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
50%
#23Stronger
66%
#30
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
9.5%
#30
6.3%
Stronger#22
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.18
#18
1.30
slight#17
DET offensevsCAR defense
DET offense ranks better in 6 of 6 matchups (6 by a clear margin) · CAR defense in 0
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.13
#6Stronger
+0.02
#18
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 28 places
+0.01
#4Stronger
+0.03
#32
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
43%
#7Stronger
40%
#22
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 26 places
68%
#2Stronger
63%
#28
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 27 places
5.0%
#4Stronger
5.2%
#31
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.15
#15Stronger
0.59
#32
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
CAR offenseDET defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
−0.20#30
+0.08#29▲
Pass success ratefavors DET
37%#31
46%#25
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.
5.0%#32
11.5%#32▲
Yards / dropback
4.4#32
7.0#30
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
7.7
9.0
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
11%
15%
Short throws (≤5 air)
52%
47%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors DET
−1.8#24▲
+0.1#14▲
YAC / completionfavors DET
4.1#32
5.2#16▲
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors DET
9.5%#30
6.3%#22
Scramble rate
4.7%
4.7%
Interception rate / Interceptions forced
1.7%#5▼
2.7%#10
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 36 · M 17 · R 47
L 40 · M 23 · R 37
DET offenseCAR defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors DET
+0.13#6▲
+0.02#18▲
Pass success ratefavors DET
50%#4
46%#20
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors DET
10.5%#5
7.5%#11
Yards / dropback
6.9#3
5.8#7
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
6.8
7.3
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
9%
11%
Short throws (≤5 air)
53%
52%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.
+1.4#14
+0.8#15
YAC / completionfavors CAR
5.4#13
4.6#2
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors DET
5.0%#4
5.2%#31▲
Scramble rate
1.1%
2.5%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors DET
1.7%#4▼
1.7%#24▼
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 39 · M 26 · R 35
L 35 · M 15 · R 50
Carolina Panthers · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:CAR scores 50% · allows 54%DET scores 50% · allows 42%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
CARDETsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
CAR2 games · small sample
Scored8.5
Allowed1.5
Pass share41%
61 plays · too few games for a range
DET7 games
Scored16.6
Allowed18.6
Pass share48%
40–56% · 206 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
CAR7 games
Scored9.4
Allowed12.6
Pass share51%
46–56% · 192 plays
DET8 games
Scored11.5
Allowed14.5
Pass share68%
56–81% · 247 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
CAR8 games
Scored12.3
Allowed12.0
Pass share58%
47–69% · 270 plays
DET2 games · small sample
Scored12.0
Allowed8.5
Pass share72%
65 plays · too few games for a range
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
CARat the half: led 2 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 8 (of 17)
4.0
4.7Q1
6.6
8.1Q2
10.6scored12.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.6
4.6Q3
4.9
6.4Q4
DETat the half: led 7 · within 3 in 8 · trailed 2 (of 17)
4.0
4.7Q1
9.6
6.4Q2
13.6scored11.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.2
7.1Q3
7.6
8.0Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
CARDET
2-15
Record
14-6
13.9
Points for / game
27.4
24.5
Points against / game
23.8
2-6 / 0-9
Home / road
8-2 / 6-4
L L L W L
Last 5
L W W W L
2023 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–20 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
CARDET
-0.173
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.068
0.003
EPA / play allowed
0.008
191
Pass yards / game
272
104
Rush yards / game
134
183
Pass yards allowed
277
122
Rush yards allowed
91
0.8 / 0.8
Turnovers / takeaways
1.1 / 1.6
3.8 / 1.6
Sacks allowed / made
1.9 / 2.5
15.4
First downs / game
21.2
50
Penalty yards / game
45
−8.5 · #45 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+4.1 · #12 of 52
2023 season to date · 17–20 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
CARDET
9-21 · 30%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
7-9 · 44%
Last two seasons (2022–2023), CAR 34 games, DET 37. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
5CARseriesDET2
Avg total points
46.4
Meetings
7
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (7 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2026DET 26 at CAR 32CAR
2023CAR 24 at DET 42DET
2022DET 23 at CAR 37CAR
2020DET 0 at CAR 20CAR
2018CAR 19 at DET 20DET
2017CAR 27 at DET 24CAR
2014DET 7 at CAR 24CAR
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Adam ThielenWR13725.7%
Jonathan MingoWR8515.9%
DJ CharkWR6612.4%
Chuba HubbardRB448.2%
Miles SandersRB417.7%
Terrace Marshall Jr.WR336.2%
Tommy TrembleTE326.0%
Hayden HurstTE326.0%
Stephen SullivanTE244.5%
Laviska Shenault Jr.WR101.9%
Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR101.9%
Ian ThomasTE91.7%
Raheem BlackshearRB71.3%
Mike StrachanWR30.6%
Giovanni RicciTE10.2%
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR19829.2%
Sam LaPortaTE14721.6%
Jahmyr GibbsRB8512.5%
Josh ReynoldsWR7811.5%
Jameson WilliamsWR517.5%
Kalif RaymondWR446.5%
David MontgomeryRB314.6%
Brock WrightTE152.2%
Marvin JonesWR101.5%
Donovan Peoples-JonesWR71.0%
Craig ReynoldsRB50.7%
James MitchellTE20.3%
Antoine GreenWR20.3%
Anthony FirkserTE10.1%
Devine OzigboRB10.1%
Jason CabindaFB10.1%
Bam KnightRB10.1%
Carolina Panthers2024–25 seasons
Detroit Lions2024–25 seasons
