RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 18 games since Sep 11, 2022
Tra Blake
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
12.7
≈ in line with the league average (11.3)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
108.2
≈ in line with the league average (92.6)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
9.8
≈ in line with the league average (8.9)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 316 league games, 18 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playAllegiant Stadium · grassStadium scoring factor 103 (11th of 32, 100 = league average) · 46.8 points a game in 53 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2023 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2023 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
PIT offensevsLV defense
PIT offense ranks better in 3 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · LV defense in 3 (1 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 15 places
−0.09
#25
−0.03
Stronger#10
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.06
#12
−0.11
slight#11
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
38%
#21slight
42%
#24
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
50%
#22slight
63%
#27
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
6.1%
#14
7.1%
slight#13
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
0.94
#5Stronger
1.24
#18
LV offensevsPIT defense
LV offense ranks better in 0 of 6 matchups · PIT defense in 6 (5 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 15 places
−0.08
#24
−0.03
Stronger#9
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.13
#24
−0.09
Stronger#15
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
36%
#24
39%
slight#20
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 21 places
49%
#26
47%
Stronger#5
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
6.6%
#19
7.2%
Stronger#10
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.41
#20
1.50
Stronger#7
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
PIT offenseLV defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors LV
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:PIT scores 49% · allows 44%LV scores 44% · allows 47%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
PITLVsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
PIT8 games
Scored11.0
Allowed14.4
Pass share57%
50–65% · 213 plays
LV2 games · small sample
Scored10.0
Allowed8.5
Pass share38%
66 plays · too few games for a range
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
PIT3 games
Scored10.7
Allowed15.7
Pass share52%
42–63% · 94 plays
LV7 games
Scored12.4
Allowed14.9
Pass share57%
49–64% · 212 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
PIT6 games
Scored10.8
Allowed10.3
Pass share66%
62–70% · 172 plays
LV8 games
Scored6.0
Allowed12.5
Pass share63%
56–70% · 189 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
PITat the half: led 8 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 6 (of 17)
3.8
4.1Q1
6.6
6.1Q2
10.4scored10.2allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.9
3.8Q3
7.0
9.4Q4
LVat the half: led 2 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 8 (of 17)
2.5
4.4Q1
4.8
7.1Q2
7.3scored11.5allowedleague 11.4
1st half
2.8
7.3Q3
6.0
5.3Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
PITLV
10-8
Record
8-9
17.8
Points for / game
19.5
19.7
Points against / game
19.5
5-4 / 5-4
Home / road
6-3 / 2-6
L W W W L
Last 5
W L W W L
2023 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–18 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
PITLV
-0.079
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.100
-0.039
EPA / play allowed
-0.061
203
Pass yards / game
216
118
Rush yards / game
91
243
Pass yards allowed
229
119
Rush yards allowed
119
0.9 / 1.9
Turnovers / takeaways
1.2 / 1.6
2.1 / 2.7
Sacks allowed / made
2.4 / 2.7
16.0
First downs / game
15.6
45
Penalty yards / game
37
−3.9 · #38 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−3.1 · #36 of 52
2023 season to date · 17–18 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
PITLV
11-11 · 50%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
5-12 · 29%
Last two seasons (2022–2023), PIT 35 games, LV 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
4PITseriesLV4
Avg total points
46.8
Meetings
8
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (8 of the 15 seasons in our history). PIT have won the last 3.
2024PIT 32 at LV 13PIT
2023PIT 23 at LV 18PIT
2022LV 10 at PIT 13PIT
2021LV 26 at PIT 17LV
2018PIT 21 at LV 24LV
2015LV 35 at PIT 38PIT
2013PIT 18 at LV 21LV
2012PIT 31 at LV 34LV
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
George PickensWR11722.4%
Diontae JohnsonWR9418.0%
Jaylen WarrenRB7614.6%
Pat FreiermuthTE5510.5%
Allen RobinsonWR5210.0%
Najee HarrisRB417.9%
Connor HeywardFB356.7%
Calvin Austin IIIWR326.1%
Darnell WashingtonTE112.1%
Miles BoykinWR40.8%
Rod WilliamsTE20.4%
Anthony McFarlandRB20.4%
Gunner OlszewskiWR10.2%
Davante AdamsWR17533.0%
Jakobi MeyersWR10620.0%
Josh JacobsRB5410.2%
Michael MayerTE407.5%
Hunter RenfrowWR377.0%
Tre TuckerWR346.4%
Austin HooperTE315.8%
Ameer AbdullahRB244.5%
Zamir WhiteRB193.6%
DeAndre CarterWR71.3%
Jakob JohnsonRB20.4%
Cole FotheringhamTE10.2%
Jesper HorstedTE10.2%
Pittsburgh Steelers2024–25 seasons
Las Vegas Raiders2024–25 seasons
