RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Sep 19, 2021
Clay Martin
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
11.8
≈ in line with the league average (11.5)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
105.3
≈ in line with the league average (97.3)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
9.7
≈ in line with the league average (9.1)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 509 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playAllegiant Stadium · grassStadium scoring factor 103 (11th of 32, 100 = league average) · 46.8 points a game in 53 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2022 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2022 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
SF offensevsLV defense
SF offense ranks better in 6 of 6 matchups (5 by a clear margin) · LV defense in 0
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 29 places
+0.17
#2Stronger
+0.14
#31
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.03
#12slight
−0.05
#16
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
45%
#6Stronger
41%
#23
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
54%
#20Stronger
69%
#32
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 19 places
5.8%
#11Stronger
4.2%
#30
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 24 places
1.00
#7Stronger
0.76
#31
LV offensevsSF defense
LV offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · SF defense in 5 (4 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.03
#15
−0.08
Stronger#3
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.04
#13
−0.14
Stronger#2
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
40%
#17
39%
slight#14
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
49%
#26
57%
Stronger#20
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
5.4%
#8Stronger
6.4%
#16
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.24
#17
1.60
Stronger#2
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
SF offenseLV defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors SF
+0.17#2
+0.14#31
Pass success ratefavors SF
48%#8
49%#29
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors SF
10.3%#1
9.4%#29▼
Yards / dropbackfavors SF
7.1#2
6.8#29
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
7.2
7.0
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
11%
11%
Short throws (≤5 air)
52%
53%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.
−1.1#19▲
+0.9#21
YAC / completionfavors SF
6.7#1
5.2#23
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors SF
5.8%#11
4.2%#30▼
Scramble rate
2.5%
3.8%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors SF
1.5%#6▼
1.0%#31▲
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 39 · M 26 · R 35
L 38 · M 20 · R 42
LV offenseSF defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors SF
+0.03#15▼
−0.08#3▲
Pass success ratefavors SF
43%#21
43%#8
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.
9.1%#7
6.9%#7▼
Yards / dropback
6.4#11
5.9#11
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
9.1
7.2
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
15%
11%
Short throws (≤5 air)
49%
55%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors SF
−2.2#27
+0.6#18▲
YAC / completionfavors SF
5.0#18
4.7#3▼
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors LV
5.4%#8▲
6.4%#16▼
Scramble rate
3.9%
4.2%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors SF
2.9%#28▲
3.3%#3
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 37 · M 27 · R 35
L 40 · M 19 · R 41
San Francisco 49ers · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:SF scores 47% · allows 50%LV scores 44% · allows 47%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
SFLVsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
SF9 games
Scored16.8
Allowed12.7
Pass share41%
35–46% · 272 plays
LV2 games · small sample
Scored10.0
Allowed8.5
Pass share38%
66 plays · too few games for a range
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
SF4 games
Scored16.8
Allowed4.3
Pass share43%
36–49% · 127 plays
LV7 games
Scored12.4
Allowed14.9
Pass share57%
49–64% · 212 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
SF4 games
Scored6.8
Allowed12.8
Pass share63%
52–73% · 107 plays
LV8 games
Scored6.0
Allowed12.5
Pass share63%
56–70% · 189 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
SFat the half: led 9 · within 3 in 4 · trailed 4 (of 17)
5.8
5.7Q1
7.0
5.2Q2
12.8scored10.9allowedleague 11.4
1st half
7.2
3.9Q3
7.2
6.8Q4
LVat the half: led 2 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 8 (of 17)
2.5
4.4Q1
4.8
7.1Q2
7.3scored11.5allowedleague 11.4
1st half
2.8
7.3Q3
6.0
5.3Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
SFLV
15-5
Record
6-11
25.9
Points for / game
23.2
17.1
Points against / game
24.6
10-1 / 5-4
Home / road
4-4 / 2-7
L W W W W
Last 5
L L L W L
2022 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–20 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
SFLV
0.071
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.010
-0.100
EPA / play allowed
0.058
235
Pass yards / game
246
137
Rush yards / game
121
234
Pass yards allowed
254
82
Rush yards allowed
123
0.9 / 2.0
Turnovers / takeaways
1.1 / 0.9
1.9 / 2.5
Sacks allowed / made
2.1 / 1.6
18.6
First downs / game
18.5
43
Penalty yards / game
55
+6.3 · #6 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−0.1 · #27 of 52
2022 season to date · 17–20 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
SFLV
4-4 · 50%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
9-10 · 47%
Last two seasons (2021–2022), SF 40 games, LV 35. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
2SFseriesLV1
Avg total points
48.3
Meetings
3
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (3 of the 15 seasons in our history). SF have won the last 2.
2022SF 37 at LV 34SF
2018LV 3 at SF 34SF
2014SF 13 at LV 24LV
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Brandon AiyukWR12421.7%
Deebo Samuel Sr.WR11620.3%
George KittleTE9717.0%
Christian McCaffreyRB7913.8%
Jauan JenningsWR6311.0%
Ray-Ray McCloudWR254.4%
Kyle JuszczykFB244.2%
Jeff WilsonRB132.3%
Elijah MitchellRB71.2%
Danny GrayWR71.2%
Ross DwelleyTE50.9%
Tyler KroftTE50.9%
Tevin ColemanRB30.5%
Charlie WoernerTE20.3%
Tyrion Davis-PriceRB20.3%
Davante AdamsWR18032.3%
Mack HollinsWR9416.8%
Josh JacobsRB6411.5%
Foster MoreauTE549.7%
Hunter RenfrowWR509.0%
Darren WallerTE437.7%
Ameer AbdullahRB325.7%
Keelan ColeWR213.8%
Brandon BoldenRB91.6%
Jakob JohnsonRB61.1%
Jesper HorstedTE40.7%
DJ TurnerWR10.2%
San Francisco 49ers2024–25 seasons
Las Vegas Raiders2024–25 seasons
