RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Sep 12, 2021
Scott Novak
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
12.9
≈ in line with the league average (11.6)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
102.3
≈ in line with the league average (97.8)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
10.2
≈ in line with the league average (9.2)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 525 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playNRG Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 100 (15th of 32, 100 = league average) · 45.7 points a game in 91 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2022 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2022 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
JAX offensevsHOU defense
JAX offense ranks better in 5 of 6 matchups (4 by a clear margin) · HOU defense in 1 (1 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.10
#7Stronger
+0.01
#14
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.05
#19slight
−0.01
#24
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
42%
#10Stronger
40%
#18
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
56%
#13Stronger
56%
#19
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
4.3%
#5Stronger
6.6%
#13
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 18 places
1.47
#29
1.35
Stronger#11
HOU offensevsJAX defense
HOU offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · JAX defense in 5 (3 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.17
#32
+0.06
Stronger#24
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 26 places
−0.21
#32
−0.11
Stronger#6
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
30%
#31
44%
slight#29
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
48%
#28
63%
slight#25
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
6.0%
#13Stronger
5.0%
#28
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 20 places
1.59
#30
1.37
Stronger#10
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
JAX offenseHOU defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors JAX
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:JAX scores 53% · allows 44%HOU scores 53% · allows 49%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
JAXHOUsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
JAX11 games
Scored12.0
Allowed9.0
Pass share39%
35–44% · 307 plays
HOU10 games
Scored9.8
Allowed12.3
Pass share45%
39–51% · 278 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
JAX3 games
Scored20.0
Allowed15.7
Pass share45%
34–57% · 110 plays
HOU3 games
Scored16.3
Allowed7.3
Pass share56%
48–65% · 94 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
JAX3 games
Scored10.0
Allowed10.3
Pass share69%
56–81% · 105 plays
HOU4 games
Scored11.3
Allowed8.8
Pass share72%
65–78% · 134 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
JAXat the half: led 11 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 3 (of 17)
6.0
3.2Q1
8.9
5.0Q2
14.9scored8.2allowedleague 11.4
1st half
6.1
2.7Q3
6.4
7.4Q4
HOUat the half: led 10 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 4 (of 17)
4.8
2.8Q1
7.8
7.2Q2
12.6scored10.0allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.4
5.6Q3
7.9
5.0Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
JAXHOU
10-9
Record
3-13-1
23.9
Points for / game
17.0
21.4
Points against / game
24.7
6-3 / 4-6
Home / road
0-7 / 3-6
L W W W W
Last 5
W L W L L
2022 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–19 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
JAXHOU
0.046
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.183
-0.004
EPA / play allowed
0.004
245
Pass yards / game
214
125
Rush yards / game
87
250
Pass yards allowed
222
114
Rush yards allowed
170
1.2 / 1.6
Turnovers / takeaways
1.5 / 1.8
1.7 / 2.0
Sacks allowed / made
2.2 / 2.3
19.2
First downs / game
14.6
39
Penalty yards / game
38
+4.1 · #11 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−4.8 · #46 of 52
2022 season to date · 17–19 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
JAXHOU
11-18 · 38%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
7-25-1 · 22%
Last two seasons (2021–2022), JAX 36 games, HOU 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
7JAXseriesHOU21
Avg total points
41.3
Meetings
28
Division rivals — they meet twice every season.
2025JAX 29 at HOU 36HOU
2025HOU 10 at JAX 17JAX
2024HOU 23 at JAX 20HOU
2024JAX 20 at HOU 24HOU
2023JAX 24 at HOU 21JAX
2023HOU 37 at JAX 17HOU
2022JAX 31 at HOU 3JAX
2022HOU 13 at JAX 6HOU
All 28 meetings
2021HOU 30 at JAX 16HOU
2021JAX 21 at HOU 37HOU
2020HOU 27 at JAX 25HOU
2020JAX 14 at HOU 30HOU
2019HOU 26 vs JAX 3HOU
2019JAX 12 at HOU 13HOU
2018JAX 3 at HOU 20HOU
2018HOU 20 at JAX 7HOU
2017HOU 7 at JAX 45JAX
2017JAX 29 at HOU 7JAX
2016JAX 20 at HOU 21HOU
2016HOU 24 at JAX 21HOU
2015JAX 6 at HOU 30HOU
2015HOU 31 at JAX 20HOU
2014JAX 17 at HOU 23HOU
2014HOU 27 at JAX 13HOU
2013HOU 20 at JAX 27JAX
2013JAX 13 at HOU 6JAX
2012JAX 37 at HOU 43HOU
2012HOU 27 at JAX 7HOU
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Christian KirkWR16124.5%
Zay JonesWR14121.4%
Evan EngramTE11517.5%
Marvin JonesWR9013.7%
Travis EtienneRB497.4%
Jamal AgnewWR345.2%
JaMycal HastyRB284.3%
Dan ArnoldTE132.0%
James RobinsonRB111.7%
Chris ManhertzTE81.2%
Luke FarrellTE40.6%
Tim JonesWR40.6%
Brandin CooksWR9316.7%
Chris MooreWR7413.3%
Nico CollinsWR6611.8%
Jordan AkinsTE549.7%
Rex BurkheadRB519.1%
Phillip DorsettWR407.2%
Dameon PierceRB397.0%
Brevin JordanTE285.0%
Dare OgunbowaleRB264.7%
O.J. HowardTE234.1%
Amari RodgersWR173.0%
Teagan QuitorianoTE142.5%
Pharaoh BrownTE101.8%
Troy HairstonRB81.4%
Royce FreemanRB81.4%
Chris ConleyWR20.4%
Mason SchreckTE20.4%
Jeff DriskelQB10.2%
Tyron JohnsonWR10.2%
Jalen CampWR10.2%
Jacksonville Jaguars2024–25 seasons
Houston Texans2024–25 seasons
