RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Sep 12, 2021
Clay Martin
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
11.9
≈ in line with the league average (11.6)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
105.2
≈ in line with the league average (97.7)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
9.8
≈ in line with the league average (9.2)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 523 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playLucas Oil Stadium · TurfStadium scoring factor 104 (7th of 32, 100 = league average) · 47.3 points a game in 84 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2022 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2022 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
LAC offensevsIND defense
LAC offense ranks better in 4 of 6 matchups (2 by a clear margin) · IND defense in 1 (1 by a clear margin) · 1 even
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.04
#13slight
+0.02
#15
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.05
#17
−0.09
Stronger#9
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.· even
44%
#8
38%
#8
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
55%
#18Stronger
68%
#31
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
5.1%
#6slight
7.2%
#8
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.00
#4Stronger
1.18
#21
IND offensevsLAC defense
IND offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups · LAC defense in 5 (5 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 22 places
−0.16
#31
−0.04
Stronger#9
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.18
#30slight
+0.07
#31
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 19 places
33%
#29
38%
Stronger#10
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
46%
#29
55%
Stronger#12
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
8.8%
#28
6.8%
Stronger#12
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 23 places
1.94
#32
1.39
Stronger#9
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
LAC offenseIND defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
+0.04#13▲
+0.02#15▲
Pass success ratefavors LAC
46%#13
46%#24
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors IND
6.8%#25
8.1%#17
Yards / dropback
6.1#16
6.2#15
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
6.3
7.1
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
9%
9%
Short throws (≤5 air)
58%
57%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.
+0.7#12▼
+0.4#17▲
YAC / completionfavors LAC
5.3#9
5.7#29
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:LAC scores 46% · allows 55%IND scores 53% · allows 51%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
LACINDsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
LAC4 games
Scored13.5
Allowed6.8
Pass share33%
27–38% · 138 plays
IND8 games
Scored13.5
Allowed11.4
Pass share47%
40–53% · 201 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
LAC6 games
Scored8.3
Allowed8.3
Pass share46%
36–57% · 169 plays
IND3 games
Scored11.7
Allowed14.3
Pass share44%
26–62% · 88 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
LAC7 games
Scored11.1
Allowed12.6
Pass share66%
60–72% · 221 plays
IND6 games
Scored10.8
Allowed12.8
Pass share63%
55–71% · 174 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
LACat the half: led 4 · within 3 in 6 · trailed 7 (of 17)
4.2
5.8Q1
5.1
5.9Q2
9.3scored11.7allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.4
3.9Q3
5.2
5.8Q4
INDat the half: led 8 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 6 (of 17)
6.0
5.3Q1
7.9
7.8Q2
13.9scored13.1allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.9
4.4Q3
5.8
7.5Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
LACIND
10-8
Record
4-12-1
23.4
Points for / game
17.0
23.1
Points against / game
25.1
5-3 / 5-5
Home / road
2-6 / 2-6
L L W W W
Last 5
L L L L L
2022 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–18 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
LACIND
0.018
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.154
0.019
EPA / play allowed
-0.019
281
Pass yards / game
227
88
Rush yards / game
110
221
Pass yards allowed
226
144
Rush yards allowed
124
0.8 / 1.8
Turnovers / takeaways
1.7 / 1.4
2.3 / 2.3
Sacks allowed / made
3.5 / 2.6
19.0
First downs / game
16.7
38
Penalty yards / game
47
+2.3 · #15 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+5.5
2022 season to date · 17–18 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
LACIND
4-7 · 36%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
8-12 · 40%
Last two seasons (2021–2022), LAC 35 games, IND 34. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
3LACseriesIND2
Avg total points
43.0
Meetings
5
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (5 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2025IND 38 at LAC 24IND
2022LAC 20 at IND 3LAC
2019IND 24 at LAC 30LAC
2016LAC 22 at IND 26IND
2013IND 9 at LAC 19LAC
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Austin EkelerRB13118.0%
Josh PalmerWR11315.5%
Keenan AllenWR10214.0%
Gerald EverettTE9513.0%
Mike WilliamsWR9312.8%
DeAndre CarterWR689.3%
Joshua KelleyRB263.6%
Michael BandyWR212.9%
Tre' McKittyTE202.7%
Donald ParhamTE172.3%
Sony MichelRB131.8%
Zander HorvathRB81.1%
Stone SmarttTE50.7%
Richard RodgersTE40.5%
Jalen GuytonWR40.5%
Isaiah SpillerRB30.4%
Jason MooreWR20.3%
Justin HerbertQB20.3%
Larry Rountree IIIRB20.3%
Michael PittmanWR14124.4%
Parris CampbellWR9115.7%
Alec PierceWR7813.5%
Jonathan TaylorRB406.9%
Jelani WoodsTE406.9%
Kylen GransonTE406.9%
Deon JacksonRB345.9%
Mo Alie-CoxTE284.8%
Nyheim HinesRB284.8%
Ashton DulinWR223.8%
Mike StrachanWR91.6%
Jordan WilkinsRB81.4%
Phillip LindsayRB81.4%
Dezmon PatmonWR61.0%
Zack MossRB50.9%
Keke CouteeWR10.2%
Los Angeles Chargers2024–25 seasons
Indianapolis Colts2024–25 seasons
