RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Jan 10, 2021
Shawn Smith
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
10.8
≈ in line with the league average (11.6)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
90.1
≈ in line with the league average (97.9)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
8.4
≈ in line with the league average (9.2)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 502 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Roof closed · wind, cold and rain are out of playState Farm Stadium · grassStadium scoring factor 104 (8th of 32, 100 = league average) · 47.3 points a game in 82 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2022 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2022 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
NE offensevsARI defense
NE offense ranks better in 2 of 6 matchups · ARI defense in 4
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.05
#23
+0.05
slight#21
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.06
#22
−0.04
slight#21
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
36%
#25slight
43%
#26
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
42%
#32
65%
slight#28
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
6.8%
#21slight
5.5%
#24
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.35
#24
1.18
slight#20
ARI offensevsNE defense
ARI offense ranks better in 1 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · NE defense in 5 (5 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 26 places
−0.10
#28
−0.09
Stronger#2
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 15 places
−0.07
#23
−0.09
Stronger#8
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
35%
#26
41%
Stronger#20
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
57%
#11Stronger
58%
#21
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
6.2%
#16
8.0%
Stronger#2
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 24 places
1.41
#27
1.59
Stronger#3
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
NE offenseARI defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
−0.05#23▲
+0.05#21
Pass success rate
41%#26
51%#31
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.
9.5%#5
6.4%#4
Yards / dropback
6.1#17
6.3#20
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
7.6
5.8
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
14%
8%
Short throws (≤5 air)
54%
59%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors NE
+0.8#11
+1.0#22▼
YAC / completionfavors NE
5.1#13▼
6.2#31
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.
6.8%#21
5.5%#24
Scramble rate
3.5%
3.5%
Interception rate / Interceptions forced
2.6%#20
1.9%#24
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 39 · M 21 · R 40
L 43 · M 19 · R 37
ARI offenseNE defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors NE
−0.10#28▼
−0.09#2▲
Pass success ratefavors NE
40%#28
42%#5
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.favors NE
5.5%#31
8.1%#18
Yards / dropbackfavors NE
5.2#32
5.7#6
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
7.0
8.9
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
11%
14%
Short throws (≤5 air)
57%
48%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors NE
−1.7#25▼
−0.6#14▲
YAC / completionfavors NE
4.8#24
4.7#6
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors NE
6.2%#16
8.0%#2▼
Scramble rate
5.4%
3.8%
Interception rate / Interceptions forcedfavors NE
2.6%#18▲
3.2%#5▲
Throws left / middle / rightShare of throws to the left, middle and right.
L 42 · M 18 · R 40
L 38 · M 23 · R 39
New England Patriots · target and rush shareHow the team's targets and carries are shared this season; red zone = inside the opponent's 20.
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:NE scores 61% · allows 47%ARI scores 51% · allows 50%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
NEARIsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
NE11 games
Scored8.8
Allowed8.9
Pass share48%
42–54% · 303 plays
ARI5 games
Scored8.6
Allowed14.2
Pass share54%
43–65% · 152 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
NE4 games
Scored11.5
Allowed5.8
Pass share46%
30–62% · 145 plays
ARI3 games
Scored3.3
Allowed17.0
Pass share67%
64–69% · 66 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
NE2 games · small sample
Scored8.0
Allowed20.5
Pass share72%
68 plays · too few games for a range
ARI9 games
Scored13.7
Allowed15.7
Pass share73%
67–78% · 308 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
NEat the half: led 11 · within 3 in 4 · trailed 2 (of 17)
5.9
2.6Q1
8.8
5.9Q2
14.7scored8.5allowedleague 11.4
1st half
3.7
4.2Q3
5.6
5.3Q4
ARIat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 3 · trailed 9 (of 17)
5.2
7.6Q1
5.6
8.1Q2
10.8scored15.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
4.9
7.0Q3
5.4
8.3Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
NEARI
8-9
Record
4-13
21.4
Points for / game
20.0
20.4
Points against / game
26.4
4-4 / 4-5
Home / road
1-8 / 3-5
L W L L W
Last 5
L L L L L
2022 season only (not a rolling window) · 17 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
NEARI
-0.052
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
-0.085
-0.083
EPA / play allowed
0.014
224
Pass yards / game
233
107
Rush yards / game
110
237
Pass yards allowed
246
105
Rush yards allowed
119
1.1 / 1.9
Turnovers / takeaways
1.3 / 1.4
2.4 / 3.1
Sacks allowed / made
2.7 / 2.1
15.5
First downs / game
17.9
49
Penalty yards / game
54
−2.3 · #35 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
−0.6 · #29 of 52
2022 season to date · 17 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
NEARI
3-11 · 21%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
9-12 · 43%
Last two seasons (2021–2022), NE 35 games, ARI 35. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
3NEseriesARI2
Avg total points
41.2
Meetings
5
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (5 of the 15 seasons in our history).
2024NE 17 at ARI 30ARI
2022NE 27 at ARI 13NE
2020ARI 17 at NE 20NE
2016NE 23 at ARI 21NE
2012ARI 20 at NE 18ARI
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Jakobi MeyersWR9618.7%
Rhamondre StevensonRB8817.1%
Hunter HenryTE5911.5%
Nelson AgholorWR5310.3%
Kendrick BourneWR489.3%
DeVante ParkerWR479.1%
Tyquan ThorntonWR458.8%
Jonnu SmithTE387.4%
Damien HarrisRB234.5%
Pierre StrongRB71.4%
Ty MontgomeryWR40.8%
Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR40.8%
J.J. TaylorRB10.2%
Bailey ZappeQB10.2%
Marquise BrownWR10716.9%
DeAndre HopkinsWR9615.1%
Zach ErtzTE6910.9%
Greg DortchWR6410.1%
James ConnerRB589.1%
Rondale MooreWR568.8%
A.J. GreenWR477.4%
Trey McBrideTE396.2%
Eno BenjaminRB335.2%
Robbie ChosenWR172.7%
Andre BaccelliaWR101.6%
Darrel WilliamsRB81.3%
Corey ClementRB71.1%
Stephen AndersonTE71.1%
Keaontay IngramRB50.8%
Andy IsabellaWR50.8%
Maxx WilliamsTE30.5%
Pharoh CooperWR20.3%
Ty'Son WilliamsRB10.2%
New England Patriots2024–25 seasons
Arizona Cardinals2024–25 seasons
