RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Dec 20, 2020
Craig Wrolstad
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
10.7
≈ in line with the league average (11.5)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
92.1
≈ in line with the league average (96.9)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
8.4
≈ in line with the league average (9.1)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 524 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playAllegiant Stadium · grassStadium scoring factor 103 (11th of 32, 100 = league average) · 46.8 points a game in 53 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2022 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2022 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
LAC offensevsLV defense
LAC offense ranks better in 5 of 6 matchups (5 by a clear margin) · LV defense in 1
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.Widest gap · 18 places
+0.04
#13Stronger
+0.14
#31
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.05
#17
−0.05
slight#16
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
44%
#8Stronger
41%
#23
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
55%
#18Stronger
69%
#32
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.Widest gap · 24 places
5.1%
#6Stronger
4.2%
#30
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.Widest gap · 27 places
1.00
#4Stronger
0.76
#31
LV offensevsLAC defense
LV offense ranks better in 2 of 6 matchups (1 by a clear margin) · LAC defense in 4 (4 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.03
#15
−0.04
Stronger#9
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.04
#13Stronger
+0.07
#31
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.
40%
#17
38%
Stronger#10
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
49%
#26
55%
Stronger#12
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
5.4%
#8slight
6.8%
#12
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.24
#17
1.39
Stronger#9
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
LAC offenseLV defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.favors LAC
+0.04#13▲
+0.14#31
Pass success ratefavors LAC
46%#13
49%#29
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.
6.8%#25
9.4%#29▼
Yards / dropbackfavors LAC
6.1#16
6.8#29
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
6.3
7.0
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
9%
11%
Short throws (≤5 air)
58%
53%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.favors LAC
+0.7#12▼
+0.9#21
YAC / completionfavors LAC
5.3#9
5.2#23
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors LAC
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:LAC scores 46% · allows 55%LV scores 44% · allows 47%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
LACLVsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
LAC4 games
Scored13.5
Allowed6.8
Pass share33%
27–38% · 138 plays
LV2 games · small sample
Scored10.0
Allowed8.5
Pass share38%
66 plays · too few games for a range
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
LAC6 games
Scored8.3
Allowed8.3
Pass share46%
36–57% · 169 plays
LV7 games
Scored12.4
Allowed14.9
Pass share57%
49–64% · 212 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
LAC7 games
Scored11.1
Allowed12.6
Pass share66%
60–72% · 221 plays
LV8 games
Scored6.0
Allowed12.5
Pass share63%
56–70% · 189 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
LACat the half: led 4 · within 3 in 6 · trailed 7 (of 17)
4.2
5.8Q1
5.1
5.9Q2
9.3scored11.7allowedleague 11.4
1st half
5.4
3.9Q3
5.2
5.8Q4
LVat the half: led 2 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 8 (of 17)
2.5
4.4Q1
4.8
7.1Q2
7.3scored11.5allowedleague 11.4
1st half
2.8
7.3Q3
6.0
5.3Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
LACLV
10-8
Record
6-11
23.4
Points for / game
23.2
23.1
Points against / game
24.6
5-3 / 5-5
Home / road
4-4 / 2-7
L L W W W
Last 5
L L L W L
2022 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–18 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
LACLV
0.018
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.010
0.019
EPA / play allowed
0.058
281
Pass yards / game
246
88
Rush yards / game
121
221
Pass yards allowed
254
144
Rush yards allowed
123
0.8 / 1.8
Turnovers / takeaways
1.1 / 0.9
2.3 / 2.3
Sacks allowed / made
2.1 / 1.6
19.0
First downs / game
18.5
38
Penalty yards / game
55
+2.3 · #15 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+1.9 · #19 of 52
2022 season to date · 17–18 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
LACLV
4-7 · 36%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
9-10 · 47%
Last two seasons (2021–2022), LAC 35 games, LV 35. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
17LACseriesLV12
Avg total points
45.3
Meetings
29
Division rivals — they meet twice every season.
2026LV 26 at LAC 14LV
2025LV 14 at LAC 31LAC
2025LAC 20 at LV 9LAC
2024LAC 34 at LV 20LAC
2024LV 10 at LAC 22LAC
2023LAC 21 at LV 63LV
2023LV 17 at LAC 24LAC
2022LAC 20 at LV 27LV
All 29 meetings
2022LV 19 at LAC 24LAC
2021LAC 32 at LV 35LV
2021LV 14 at LAC 28LAC
2020LAC 30 at LV 27LAC
2020LV 31 at LAC 26LV
2019LV 24 at LAC 17LV
2019LAC 24 at LV 26LV
2018LAC 20 at LV 6LAC
2018LV 10 at LAC 26LAC
2017LV 10 at LAC 30LAC
2017LAC 17 at LV 16LAC
2016LV 19 at LAC 16LV
2016LAC 31 at LV 34LV
2015LAC 20 at LV 23LV
2015LV 37 at LAC 29LV
2014LV 6 at LAC 13LAC
2014LAC 31 at LV 28LAC
2013LV 13 at LAC 26LAC
2013LAC 17 at LV 27LV
2012LV 21 at LAC 24LAC
2012LAC 22 at LV 14LAC
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Austin EkelerRB13118.0%
Josh PalmerWR11315.5%
Keenan AllenWR10214.0%
Gerald EverettTE9513.0%
Mike WilliamsWR9312.8%
DeAndre CarterWR689.3%
Joshua KelleyRB263.6%
Michael BandyWR212.9%
Tre' McKittyTE202.7%
Donald ParhamTE172.3%
Sony MichelRB131.8%
Zander HorvathRB81.1%
Stone SmarttTE50.7%
Richard RodgersTE40.5%
Jalen GuytonWR40.5%
Isaiah SpillerRB30.4%
Jason MooreWR20.3%
Justin HerbertQB20.3%
Larry Rountree IIIRB20.3%
Davante AdamsWR18032.3%
Mack HollinsWR9416.8%
Josh JacobsRB6411.5%
Foster MoreauTE549.7%
Hunter RenfrowWR509.0%
Darren WallerTE437.7%
Ameer AbdullahRB325.7%
Keelan ColeWR213.8%
Brandon BoldenRB91.6%
Jakob JohnsonRB61.1%
Jesper HorstedTE40.7%
DJ TurnerWR10.2%
Los Angeles Chargers2024–25 seasons
Las Vegas Raiders2024–25 seasons
