RefereeCounts per game across this official's recent games, next to the league's over the same dates. History; not a forecast.◷History
Last 30 games since Dec 6, 2020
Adrian Hill
Accepted penalties
per game, both teams
12.3
≈ in line with the league average (11.5)
Penalty yards
per game, both teams
105.9
≈ in line with the league average (97.0)
Accepted penalties per 100 plays
both teams
9.7
≈ in line with the league average (9.1)
Bar: 90% range of the average; dot = the average, line = the league's over the same dates (n = 528 league games, 30 worked). Above, below or in line is a statistical call: whether the 90% range sits clear of the league's number, not a percentage cutoff. Counts from games this official worked, which also reflect the teams and conditions of those games; who officiates is one of many things that shape a game.
Field and weather
Indoors · wind, cold and rain are out of playFord Field · TurfStadium scoring factor 104 (5th of 32, 100 = league average) · 47.5 points a game in 93 games hereIndoor games league-wide: 47.8 points vs 45.2 in mild outdoor games
Matchup statsHow the two teams play: each offense against the defense it faces, the three widest gaps marked, every measure ranked (1 = best).
play-by-play and charting · 2022 season only
Offense vs defenseEach offense's league rank against the defense it faces; longer bar = better rank, filled = the side ranking better. The three widest gaps are marked.
2022 season · ranks of 32
ranks betterranks worseStronger6+ places apartleague middleLonger bar = better rank of 32 (#1 = best)
CLE offensevsBUF defense
CLE offense ranks better in 0 of 6 matchups · BUF defense in 6 (4 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.01
#16
−0.01
slight#12
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.01
#6
−0.11
slight#5
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 16 places
39%
#21
38%
Stronger#5
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 17 places
54%
#19
46%
Stronger#2
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
7.2%
#24
6.2%
Stronger#18
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.18
#12
1.44
Stronger#5
BUF offensevsCLE defense
BUF offense ranks better in 5 of 6 matchups (4 by a clear margin) · CLE defense in 1 (1 by a clear margin)
Passing · EPA per dropbackExpected points added per dropback; the defense's number is what it allows.
+0.16
#3Stronger
−0.01
#11
Rushing · EPA per rushExpected points added per rush; the defense's number is what it allows.
−0.04
#15Stronger
+0.05
#29
Third-down conversionShare of third downs converted; the defense's is what it allows.Widest gap · 18 places
51%
#1Stronger
40%
#19
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown; the defense's is what it allows.
60%
#9slight
55%
#14
Sacks · protection vs pass rushSacks per dropback: allowed by the offense (fewer is better), created by the defense.
5.5%
#9Stronger
6.0%
#21
Turnovers · giveaways vs takeawaysPer game: the offense's giveaways (fewer is better) and the defense's takeaways.
1.67
#31
1.12
Stronger#23
Every measure, ranked
35 measures per pairing+
Each measure, offense vs opposing defense, ranked of 32 (1 = best). Favors: big rank gap. ▲▼: recent trend.
CLE offenseBUF defense
EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: the best single passing-efficiency number. Defense column: what it allows.
+0.01#16▼
−0.01#12▲
Pass success rate
44%#18
44%#16
Explosive pass rateDropbacks gaining 20+ yards.
7.8%#19
7.6%#14
Yards / dropbackfavors BUF
6.1#18
5.6#5
Depth of target (aDOT)Average air yards per attempt — how far downfield they throw, or get thrown at.
8.3
7.5
Deep-ball rate (20+ air)
12%
10%
Short throws (≤5 air)
50%
53%
Completion % over expectedCompletions above what the throws' difficulty predicts, per attempt. Defense column: what it allows.
+0.9#9▼
−2.0#5▼
YAC / completionfavors BUF
4.8#23▲
4.7#7
Sack rate / Sack rate generatedSacks per dropback. Lower is better for an offense; the defense column shows sacks they create.favors BUF
Designed runs over each team's last 17 games (scrambles and kneel-downs left out), by the hole play-by-play charts, named from the offense's side: a defense's “left end” is what offenses did running at its right side. Small numbers under each value are its carries. Success = the carry added expected points; ranges are about 90%. Rings mark 2, 4, 6, 8 yards. QB sneaks count as middle runs. Under 10 carries is faint. History, not a forecast.
Scoring by quarter and halfPoints scored (solid) and allowed (striped) per quarter and half over the last 17 games; tick = league average.◷History
Points in the 1st half:CLE scores 59% · allows 49%BUF scores 48% · allows 58%league 50%
Game script: the second halfSecond-half points and pass share after leading by 4+, being within 3, or trailing by 4+ at the break.◷History
Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
CLEBUFsolid = scored · striped = allowedleague in the same spotband = about 90% range
Led at half
by 4+
League 11.7 scored
League 45% pass
CLE6 games
Scored7.3
Allowed8.2
Pass share48%
41–56% · 151 plays
BUF5 games
Scored11.8
Allowed10.6
Pass share35%
30–40% · 152 plays
Close at half
tied or within 3
League 11.3 scored
League 53% pass
CLE7 games
Scored7.3
Allowed13.7
Pass share58%
47–69% · 209 plays
BUF5 games
Scored15.0
Allowed12.0
Pass share53%
43–63% · 138 plays
Trailed at half
by 4+
League 11.3 scored
League 63% pass
CLE4 games
Scored7.3
Allowed11.0
Pass share62%
45–79% · 131 plays
BUF7 games
Scored18.1
Allowed7.1
Pass share51%
45–58% · 280 plays
Second half = third quarter, fourth quarter and overtime, per game. Pass share = pass attempts over attempts plus carries in the second half (sacks left out; scrambles and kneel-downs count as carries). The range counts games, not plays. League = every NFL team's last 17 games (32 teams). History, and it follows the score: not a forecast of this game.
Quarter tempoPoints scored (up) and allowed (down) per game in each quarter, last 17 games; ticks mark the league average.◷History
per game · Last 17 games · 4 in 2026, 13 in 2025
CLEat the half: led 6 · within 3 in 7 · trailed 4 (of 17)
4.2
6.2Q1
6.4
4.6Q2
10.6scored10.8allowedleague 11.4
1st half
2.5
5.6Q3
4.8
5.5Q4
BUFat the half: led 5 · within 3 in 5 · trailed 7 (of 17)
3.9
5.1Q1
10.0
8.4Q2
13.9scored13.5allowedleague 11.4
1st half
6.1
2.3Q3
9.3
7.1Q4
number above the line = scored (solid bar) · below = allowed (striped)league averageLeague per team: Q1 4.6 · Q2 6.8 · Q3 4.8 · Q4 6.5
We don't carry first-half or quarter lines yet, so there is no market number beside these. Overtime is left out. History, not a forecast.
SeasonBoth teams' record, scoring and recent results this season; green marks the better side.◷History
CLEBUF
7-10
Record
14-4
21.2
Points for / game
27.7
22.4
Points against / game
19.1
4-4 / 3-6
Home / road
8-2 / 6-2
L W L W L
Last 5
L W W W W
2022 season only (not a rolling window) · 17–18 games each.
EfficiencyHow well each offense moves the ball and each defense stops it; green marks the better side.◷History
CLEBUF
0.013
EPA / play (offense)Expected points added per offensive play. The single best efficiency number.
0.082
0.021
EPA / play allowed
-0.048
218
Pass yards / game
273
146
Rush yards / game
134
209
Pass yards allowed
232
135
Rush yards allowed
105
1.0 / 1.3
Turnovers / takeaways
1.4 / 1.7
2.6 / 2.0
Sacks allowed / made
2.3 / 2.5
19.1
First downs / game
21.3
51
Penalty yards / game
43
+3.5 · #13 of 52
QB EPA / gameThis week's starter's passing + rushing EPA per game, ranked among starters with three or more games.
+7.4 · #3 of 52
2022 season to date · 17–18 games each.
SituationsHow each team has done in a specific situation over the last two seasons. A tendency, not a prediction.◷History
CLEBUF
5-12 · 29%
Outright wins as underdogStraight-up upsets pulled off when the market had them losing.
2-2 · 50%
Last two seasons (2021–2022), CLE 34 games, BUF 37. Tendencies, not predictions.
Head to head · since 2012Past meetings: series record, average total points and each final score.◷History
2CLEseriesBUF5
Avg total points
44.7
Meetings
7
Not division rivals — the schedule brings them together every few seasons (7 of the 15 seasons in our history). BUF have won the last 2.
2025BUF 23 at CLE 20BUF
2022CLE 23 vs BUF 31BUF
2019BUF 16 at CLE 19CLE
2016CLE 13 at BUF 33BUF
2014CLE 10 at BUF 26BUF
2013BUF 24 at CLE 37CLE
2012BUF 24 at CLE 14BUF
Schedule strengthSchedule strength, rank of 32 (1 = hardest): opponents faced, teams beaten and games ahead. Early-season ranks swing. 2026 season only: no earlier games count.◷History
Lines are the market's, from the sportsbooks we track. This page is data only: the model's read of the game is its own page, linked under the market. For information only, not betting advice. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Amari CooperWR13226.1%
Donovan Peoples-JonesWR9619.0%
David NjokuTE8015.8%
Kareem HuntRB448.7%
Harrison BryantTE428.3%
Nick ChubbRB377.3%
David BellWR356.9%
Anthony SchwartzWR102.0%
Mike WoodsWR102.0%
Pharaoh BrownTE102.0%
Demetric FeltonRB40.8%
D'Ernest JohnsonRB30.6%
Daylen BaldwinWR20.4%
Miller ForristallTE10.2%
Stefon DiggsWR17327.5%
Gabe DavisWR10616.9%
Dawson KnoxTE7712.3%
Isaiah McKenzieWR6710.7%
Devin SingletaryRB609.6%
James CookRB325.1%
Khalil ShakirWR274.3%
Quintin MorrisTE142.2%
Jamison CrowderWR132.1%
Nyheim HinesRB121.9%
Cole BeasleyWR111.8%
Reggie GilliamRB101.6%
Zack MossRB81.3%
Jake KumerowWR71.1%
Isaiah HodginsWR61.0%
John BrownWR30.5%
Tommy SweeneyTE10.2%
Tanner GentryWR10.2%
Cleveland Browns2024–25 seasons
Buffalo Bills2024–25 seasons
